The country appears to be facing a jarring climate contradiction as two major government agencies simultaneously activate emergency measures: one bracing for a looming severe drought while the other mobilizes for imminent and heavy flooding.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the country is caught between the two weather extremes as the beginning of the rainy season is predicted to begin between late May to early June, bringing localized flooding and landslides to high-risk areas, while several areas face prolonged dry spells, with a potential El Niño predicted to develop from June to August.

The Philippine National Police (PNP) has already responded to the wet season forecast as top cop Police General Jose Melencio C. Nartatez, Jr. ordered all police units nationwide to activate disaster preparedness measures and strengthen flood and typhoon response operations in vulnerable communities.

"Police units in flood- and landslide-prone areas are now coordinating closely with local disaster councils for planning on preemptive evacuation, traffic management, and rescue operations," Nartatez said.

Concurrently, the PNP is preparing quick reaction teams and search-and-rescue units in areas frequently affected by flooding and tropical cyclones. Police assistance desks for stranded commuters and affected residents are also being readied in coordination with local government units and disaster response agencies.

"We are reminding all commanders to inspect rescue equipment, prepare deployment teams, and maintain 24/7 readiness during periods of heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones. Our personnel are ready to assist in rescue, evacuation, and humanitarian operations whenever needed," Nartatez added.

The typhoon readiness measures came even as certain agricultural regions also prepare for the threat of El Niño.

According to the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity (OPAPRU), Caraga (Region 13) in Mindanao is currently ground zero for the climate paradox, experiencing a bizarre weather pattern where communities remain vulnerable to El Niño droughts while simultaneously experiencing unseasonal flash floods caused by shifting cyclone tracks.

Also in Mindanao, the Region 9 provinces of Zamboanga del Sur, Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Zamboanga City are facing the early onset of drought.

Meanwhile, Regions 11 and 12, specifically South Cotabato, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao de Oro, anticipate threats to food and economic security due to their heavy reliance on rice, corn, and high-value crops. Region 10 faces its own climate-driven risks as Bukidnon's highland crops like coffee and pineapple suffer from shifting temperatures while Misamis Oriental deals with coastal dry spells.

In Luzon, 13 provinces—including Abra, Apayao, Bataan, Benguet, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, La Union, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, and Zambales—are expected to face "dry conditions," which means two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.

To address the dry spell side of the crisis, OPAPRU integrated former rebels (FRs) and FR-led People’s Organizations (POs) into the government's disaster and climate response framework in Mindanao to shield vulnerable farming sectors from total crop failure.

"As we anticipate the possible effects of the El Niño phenomenon, we must ensure that our field offices in Mindanao, especially in non-BARMM areas, are fully prepared for any eventuality brought about by the upcoming dry spell," said Presidential peace adviser Mel Senen Sarmiento.

According to OPAPRU, the dual-threat scenario mirrors the severe social and humanitarian consequences of the 2016 Kidapawan crisis, where prolonged dry conditions, food insecurity, and inadequate institutional coordination converged in vulnerable farming communities, culminating in violent protests over government rice subsidies.

"This incident highlights the need for proactive, transparent, and collaborative government action for marginalized and conflict-affected groups. OPAPRU’s El Nino preparedness initiative aims to bolster early intervention and agency coordination, ensuring former rebel communities and farming organizations receive support before humanitarian or security issues arise," Sarmiento stated.

To counter this, the OPAPRU noted that Area Management Units will use vulnerability maps and climate outlooks issued by PAGASA and the Department of Agriculture to standardize coordination protocols.

What happens then when El Niño overlaps with the wet season? According to PAGASA, the southwest monsoon or habagat may bring heavier rains than usual from May to September due to the effects of El Niño, raising the risk of flooding in several parts of the country.

Weather experts also warned that from October to December, stronger tropical cyclones may develop, including possible typhoons and super typhoons.

While fewer storms are expected this year, forecasters said the tropical cyclones that may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) are likely to be more intense.

Amidst the overlapping protocols, the government called on citizens to prepare for rapid weather shifts.

"We urge residents to stay alert, monitor official advisories from PAGASA and local authorities, and cooperate with evacuation protocols when necessary. Preparation and coordination are critical, and we are making sure our police units can respond quickly to," Nartatez said.