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Playoff scenarios: High chance of TNT-Ginebra, Bol-Brownlee duel in QF

Published May 8, 2026 11:14 am

At A Glance

  • Barangay Ginebra and TNT could find themselves at a collision course in the playoffs according to the 32 possible playoff scenarios diligently calculated and projected by PBA chief statistician Fidel Mangonon III before the Friday twinbill at the Ninoy Aquino Stadium.

Justin Brownlee and Bol Bol have yet to meet on the PBA floor in the eliminations but it's turning out that they have a high chance of seeing each other in the quarterfinals as well.

Barangay Ginebra and TNT could find themselves on a collision course in the playoffs according to the 32 possible playoff scenarios diligently calculated and projected by PBA chief statistician Fidel Mangonon III before the Friday twin bill at the Ninoy Aquino Stadium.

There’s currently six games to be played in the three days left in the eliminations. Save for the Blackwater and Converge game on Saturday, May 9, all of the games have serious implications on how the playoff picture would pan out.

TNT and Ginebra, for their part, won’t be playing each other until the final day of eliminations at the Mall of Asia Arena on Sunday, May 10.

In the data provided by Mangonon III, the chances for a Kings and Tropang 5G meeting in the quarterfinals is 37.5 percent or 12 of the 32 possible scenarios.

Of course, Ginebra will be holding on to a twice-to-beat advantage in every scenario and Bol and the rest of the Tropang 5G will need to be on the same page if they wish to force a do-or-die Game 2.

Aside from TNT, however, Ginebra also has four other possible opponents in the quarterfinals. 

The Kings have 31.25 percent chance or 10 of the 32 possible scenarios of facing the Phoenix Fuel Masters. Ginebra defeated Phoenix, 109-96, in the eliminations although not after staging a furious comeback from 12 points down at the half.

A quarterfinals Manila Clasico isn’t out of the picture as well with the chance of meeting between Ginebra and Magnolia is currently projected at roughly 18.75 percent or six of the 32 possible scenarios.

The Kings narrowly escaped the Hotshots, 91-89, in the eliminations.

Although chances are low, Ginebra could still also play San Miguel and Meralco in the playoffs.

The Kings have a 9.3 percent probability of facing the Beermen or three out of the 32 scenarios while they have a 3.12 percent chance of taking on the Bolts or just one in the 32 scenarios.

Ginebra both lost against SMB and Meralco in the elims with the Beermen escaping with an 85-82 win while the Bolts routed the Kings, 112-91.

Related Tags

Bol Bol Justin Brownlee PBA playoffs PBA PBA Commissioner\'s Cup
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