The value of the country’s agriculture and fisheries output declined by more than ₱1 billion in the first quarter, following a 0.3 percent contraction, driven by weaker production in crops and fisheries, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Data from the PSA showed that the value of agriculture and fisheries production, measured in constant 2018 prices, declined to ₱437.52 billion for the January-to-March period, compared to ₱438.65 billion in the same period in 2025.

The decline in the first quarter continues the downward trajectory of the country’s agricultural output, which last posted 0.8 percent growth in the fourth quarter—the lowest rate recorded last year.

The crops subsector, which accounts for 55 percent of total output, declined by 2.4 percent to ₱243.62 billion from ₱249.61 billion a year ago.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel attributed the decline to the lingering impact of successive typhoons in the latter part of 2025, which led to a 6.2 percent drop in palay (unmilled rice) production.

He said this was exacerbated by a weaker planting outlook due to lower palay farmgate prices, which strongly discouraged planting.

Still, the crops subsector remained relatively resilient despite the recent surge in fuel and fertilizer costs, driven by supply constraints triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food Inc. (PCAFI) President Danilo Fausto, however, pointed out that the sector did not immediately feel the impact of higher costs, as such increases only began in March.

Fausto told Manila Bulletin that the direct impact of higher agricultural input costs would likely influence production by the third quarter of the year.

PSA data also showed that the fisheries subsector plunged by more than six percent to ₱52.34 billion in the first quarter from ₱55.74 billion in the prior year. The DA said this was due to persistent structural and environmental challenges.

On the other hand, the value of poultry production sustained its growth in the first three months, posting a 7.1 percent expansion to ₱80.83 billion from ₱75.50 billion in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, livestock output increased by 5.1 percent to ₱60.74 billion from the previous year’s ₱57.81 billion, driven largely by the steady recovery of domestic swine production.

Tiu Laurel said he is optimistic that agricultural output will rebound in the second quarter, noting that rice production will likely recover as planting conditions normalize and palay prices improve.

“At the same time, the continued strength of our livestock and poultry sectors is helping cushion overall output and providing stability to food supply,” he said in a statement.

Tiu Laurel noted that risks still loom over the agriculture sector, such as the impact of higher oil prices on transport and inputs, as well as the potential effects of an El Niño-induced drought that could weigh on production.

The sector is currently bracing for the onslaught of a “super” El Niño—a phenomenon in which temperatures in the Pacific Ocean increase by at least two degrees Celsius above average—potentially straining water resources crucial for agriculture.

“Higher cost of fuel, fertilizer, and El Niño will result in a bigger decline in agricultural output for 2026,” said Faustino.

Last year, the country’s agriculture and fisheries output rose by 2.6 percent, as gains in the crops and poultry subsectors offset the year-low 0.8-percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter.

Tiu Laurel said the government is currently rolling out sustained support and timely interventions to manage these emerging headwinds.