Philippine consumer spending stays weak in Q1 2026—Visa
Published Apr 29, 2026 06:15 pm
|
Updated Apr 29, 2026 04:43 pm
Philippine consumer spending momentum remained weak in the first quarter of 2026, although conditions showed signs of stabilizing in March after two straight months of contraction just before the war in the Middle East erupted, according to global financial giant Visa.
An April 28 Visa Business and Economic Insights report authored by Visa principal Asia-Pacific economist Simon Baptist and Asia-Pacific economist Minakshi Barman showed that the Philippines’ Spending Momentum Index (SMI) contracted in January and February before shifting to a “steady state” in March.
The report’s heatmap showed that spending conditions stopped worsening toward the end of the first quarter. March’s improved reading was also the first break from a string of “contracting” quarterly readings that had persisted since the first quarter of 2024.
Separate data showed that the Philippines’ discretionary SMI stood at 93.5 in the first quarter, while non-discretionary spending was at 93—both below the 100 threshold that signals expansion, meaning household spending continued to contract on an annual basis.
Still, these readings reflected a modest improvement from the fourth quarter of 2025, when discretionary spending momentum stood at 92.8 and non-discretionary spending was at 91, based on Visa’s previous quarterly report last February.
In that earlier report, the Philippines was among the few markets in emerging Asia to post an overall improvement in spending momentum during the October-to-December 2025 period, supported by the country’s long Christmas season and holiday-related purchases.
However, despite the slight improvement in spending momentum this quarter, the Philippines remained below the expansion threshold.
The renewed weakness came even as consumer spending momentum across emerging Asia improved in the first quarter, with the regional SMI rising by 1.5 points.
“Overall, March’s energy shock explains much of the regional divergence: economies with full price pass-through saw a temporary lift to nominal momentum, while those where households or governments adjusted quickly experienced weaker or declining SMI readings,” the report said, referring to the global oil price and supply shocks caused by the war in Iran.
Visa’s SMI measures the breadth of year-over-year changes in household spending using Visa bankcard transaction data. Readings above 100 indicate broad-based acceleration in spending, while readings below 100 signal contraction.