Barring any earthshaking political upheaval, it looks like Vice President Sara Duterte is likely to win the presidency in 2028. Ever since she ran for national office with President Bongbong Marcos under UniTeam in 2022, her base of support has been consistently high and solid. Despite all the dirt thrown at her since her bitter break up with the President, including the multiple impeachment complaints last year, and all the malicious allegations levelled against her to destroy her reputation like abuse of power, misuse of confidential funds, and non-declaration of assets, she has maintained her popularity survey after survey. According to a Pulse Asia February 27 to March 2, 2026 survey, for example, Sara Duterte obtained 55 percent approval and 54 percent trust ratings while President BBM got only 36 percent and 35 percent, respectively. In a 19-20 February 2026 poll conducted by Tangere after her February 18 declaration to run for president, the Vice President is way ahead of other possible candidates for the presidency; she leads with 43 percent voter support, Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo is runner up at 27 percent, Senator Raffy Tulfo takes third place at 15 percent. WR Numero’s March 2026 presidential survey shows Sara Duterte leading at 35.9 percent, followed by Raffy Tulfo at 18.5 percent, and Leni Robredo at 15.7 percent. Just a few days ago, Octa Research released its April 2026 presidential survey showing Sara Duterte as number one with 33 percent while Leni Robredo has 21 percent. With Robredo’s recent announcement of her intention not to run for national office in 2028, and Tulfo, in early March saying that he has no plans to run for president or vice president in 2028, there is no one left strong enough to challenge Duterte for the presidency … and we are just some months from now before campaign season begins.

It may be argued that this support base largely comes from the legacy of her father, former President Rodrigo “Digong” Duterte, a populist who, for almost 40 years in politics at local and national levels, built a network of strong, hard core supporters owing to his pro-poor, anti-illegal drug crusader, Mindanao champion, anti-elite, no nonsense, aksyon agad image. Sara Duterte wisely capitalizes on this family brand, and in many ways, projects a similar persona to her followers.

As regards the old man, a powerful narrative peddled by some Duterte loyalists portrays former President Digong as a weak and sickly octogenarian kidnapped to be tried in a foreign court by non-Filipinos. If his health gets terribly worse, or if he is condemned for a crime against humanity, for sure, there will be a turbulent uproar among his supporters which can possibly even draw sympathies from many Filipinos whose family-centered culture could not stand seeing a hapless daughter crying for justice.

Some analysts see the timing of Sara Duterte’s declaration to run for president when the impeachment proceedings were about to start as a brilliant move to forewarn the members of the House of Representatives that whatever action they take in this fraught-with controversy process to unseat the Vice President will be remembered if she becomes president in 2028. The reaction was quick as a faction of Partido Demokratiko Pilipino Laban (PDP-Laban) openly declared support for Sara Duterte while the National Unity Party (NUP), which holds the second-largest bloc in Congress, is hesitant to take a unified stance on her impeachment. NUP Chair, Congressman Ronaldo Puno says that "there is just too much division" regarding this issue among its party members.

The normally long and tedious impeachment process Philippine style will be further stalled by politics, and by many urgent, survival challenges facing the country right now as a consequence of the Middle East war. If the articles of impeachment ever pass the Lower House, the prospect of a conviction in the Senate will be a daunting challenge due to the loud and battle-ready Senators aligned with the Dutertes who are committed to do whatever is necessary to frustrate the already improbable two thirds vote for conviction.

On the other hand, while the increasingly unpopular President tries his best to stay afloat, and to bravely fight fires particularly, the flood control corruption scandal linked to members of his cabinet and close allies, there does not seem to be any candidate from the current administration who is strong enough to challenge Sara Duterte for the presidency. At this late stage, when many politicians are already revved up discreetly and indiscreetly campaigning for the 2028 elections, President BBM cannot seem to make up his mind on whom to groom to succeed him.

What then can we do? Are we simply going to watch things happen? What factors in our society can bring change and hope to address the chronic maladies afflicting Philippine politics? What can assure us that if Sara Duterte wins the presidency, the Filipino can thrive? In my next article, I will suggest answers, hopefully, to these questions.

(Nicomedes 'Nick' Alviar, PhD, is the Dean of School of Politics and Governance, University of Asia and the Pacific)