Tensions in the Middle East are threatening to derail a cooling trend in global energy markets, as fresh supply disruptions at critical chokepoints signal a potential return to volatility for Filipino consumers.

While initial trading early in the week pointed toward significant relief at the pump, a late-week rebound in regional benchmarks has narrowed the scope for rollbacks, according to industry data and government officials.

Based on the four-day trading average of the Mean of Platts Singapore, the primary benchmark for Southeast Asian refined products, diesel prices are projected to decrease by ₱8 to ₱10 per liter. However, the outlook for gasoline has soured, with prices expected to either remain flat or rise by as much as ₱1 per liter.

The primary driver of the sudden price support is a series of blockades at the Strait of Hormuz. As the world’s most significant energy artery, any interference with the strait creates an immediate risk premium.

Market analysts noted that while the Lebanon ceasefire provided a brief moment of optimism, the physical reality of shipping disruptions has forced a repricing of risk. Renewed geopolitical friction has caused MOPS prices and premiums to rebound during the final two trading days of the week, effectively eroding the gains that would have led to a deeper diesel rollback and pushing gasoline into inflationary territory.

The price volatility comes as the Philippine government tightens its grip on domestic fuel pricing under the weight of a National Energy Emergency.

Following the mandates of Executive Order No. 110, the Department of Energy has issued an advisory restricting how oil companies calculate their weekly adjustments.

Under the emergency declaration, oil firms are prohibited from exceeding a DOE-prescribed ceiling for price hikes. Conversely, the order ensures that downward adjustments do not fall below a mandatory minimum floor, a move intended to stabilize the market during periods of extreme external shocks.