Local stocks ended the volatile session virtually unchanged as investors weighed the prospect of extended diplomatic talks in the Middle East against the persistent threat of crude-driven inflation.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) edged up 0.34 point, or 0.01 percent, to close at 6,063.69 on Thursday, April 16. The marginal gain reflects a market caught in a holding pattern, with sectoral indices split evenly between gains and losses.

Trading activity remained robust despite the lack of direction, with 2.14 billion shares changing hands at a total value of ₱7.8 billion. Decliners led advancers 100 to 91, while 64 issues remained unchanged.

The sideways movement highlighted period of intense caution as market participants monitor whether regional tensions in the Middle East will deescalate or trigger a broader conflict. While early reports of a potential two-week ceasefire extension between the US and Iran provided a floor for sentiment, the relief was tempered by a slight uptick in Nymex crude oil prices.

For the import-dependent Philippine economy, sustained energy costs raise the specter of higher consumer prices and a more aggressive pivot from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Luis Limlingan, managing director at Regina Capital Development Corp., noted that risk appetite remains firmly in check.

He observed that while investors stayed on the sidelines awaiting definitive geopolitical developments, selective buying in heavyweights prevented a broader retreat. This indecisiveness was echoed by Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, who said the lack of a clear trend is a direct result of the uncertainty surrounding the war’s impact on local macroeconomic fundamentals.

The central bank’s upcoming policy path continues to be a primary concern for the equities market. If energy-led inflation persists, the BSP may be forced to tighten policy further to anchor expectations, a move that typically weighs on corporate earnings and equity valuations.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the market is essentially pricing in “wait-and-see” scenario where the benefits of potential peace talks are being balanced against the reality of higher-for-longer commodity prices. Until there is a clearer resolution on the global front, the PSEi is expected to remain range-bound.