Fuel prices are poised for another significant retreat next week as cooling tensions in the Middle East drive global benchmarks lower, offering a second consecutive wave of relief to local motorists and transport operators.

Based on the first three days of trading for the Mean of Platts Singapore, the regional pricing standard, industry data suggests a substantial rollback is on the horizon. Diesel prices are projected to plunge by ₱18 to ₱20 per liter, while gasoline prices are estimated to decline by ₱2 to ₱3 per liter.

These adjustments, which reflect the volatile premium shifts in the Asian refined products market, are expected to be finalized by oil companies on Monday, April 20.

The downward trajectory follows a de-escalation in geopolitical anxiety as diplomatic efforts involving the United States, Iran, and Israel show signs of progress. Market analysts noted that the prospect of a sustained ceasefire has mitigated fears of a supply disruption in the Persian Gulf, a critical chokepoint for global crude flows.

A source told the Manila Bulletin that the “improving signs of diplomacy” have neutralized much of the risk premium that had been baked into fuel costs earlier this month.

However, the Department of Energy remained cautious, maintaining that the local market remains highly sensitive to any sudden shifts in the Middle East. While current trends favor the consumer, the agency warned that any intensification of conflict could abruptly reverse these gains and spike prices higher.

To bolster the national fuel security buffer, the DOE is finalizing the arrival of the last shipment of a 900,000-barrel diesel procurement program this month. The agency is also working alongside the Department of Foreign Affairs to explore further supply arrangements with Russia.

Furthermore, the Philippine National Oil Co. - Exploration Corp. is awaiting a 300,000-barrel delivery of diesel sourced from Oman to ensure domestic inventories remain stable.

On the retail front, the government is continuing its targeted relief measures to cushion the impact of prior price hikes. A ₱10.00 per liter fuel subsidy remains active for jeepney and UV Express drivers within Metro Manila.

This initiative, coordinated by the Department of Transportation, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, and Land Bank of the Philippines, is currently supported by 46 participating retail stations.