The 2026 Iran War (Operation Epic Fury), which began on Feb. 28, 2026, has quickly become one of the most intense and high-stakes conflicts of the decade. So far, it is becoming a massive system shock to the global order. While the US and Israel have dominated the physical battlefield, the economic and geopolitical fallout has created a much more complex and challenging picture for Washington.

As of April 11, 2026, the world is holding its breath. A fragile, two-week ceasefire has just begun in the conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran. What started on Feb. 28 as a lightning-fast military campaign has transformed into a global crisis that has rewritten the rules of the Middle East and sent tremors through the global economy.

While the US and Israel have dominated the physical battlefield, the economic and geopolitical fallout has created a much more complex and challenging picture for Washington.

President Trump’s administration aimed to neuter the Iranian regime. This meant destroying Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons, wiping out its massive ballistic missile program, and forcing regime change.

As of this writing, both the US and Israel have shown undisputed air superiority and may have decimated Iran’s traditional military infrastructure, leadership, and left their economy in shambles. But they have not been able to achieve unconditional surrender. It seems Iran, despite losing most of its top leadership, is able to survive the massive onslaught and is now using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to demand an end to sanctions and recognition of its maritime rights over the strategic waterway.

While the bombs fell in the Middle East, the rest of the world is feeling the impact at the gas

stations and the grocery stores. By mining this narrow waterway, Iran effectively choked off 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas. Oil prices surged past $120 per barrel, leading international energy bodies to call this the greatest energy security crisis in history. The current crisis has left many countries unprepared and scrambling to keep their local economies moving.

Even oil producers like Iraq and Kuwait are seeing their economies reel because they cannot ship their oil. In the Gulf, where almost all food and drinking water come through the Strait or depend on energy-heavy desalination plants, prices for basic groceries are reportedly skyrocketing, leading to widespread shortages.

Although the US-Israel alliance has the tactical advantage, they have struggled to

turn that military victory into a stable peace. The US is now seen as being stuck in another Middle Eastern quagmire, draining its expensive missiles and resources.

Russia and China have played a clever, quiet game. By staying out of the direct fighting, they have watched their rival, the U.S, exhaust itself. In fact, Russia may be growing richer from the high oil prices caused by the war, using that money to fund its own battles elsewhere. In the case of China, it is cleverly positioning itself as a stable economic partner, offering trade and stability to countries tired of the chaos. This giant may be putting into practice the saying, “Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.”

The ceasefire is currently being negotiated in Islamabad, Pakistan, further highlighting a shift away from Western-led peace summits toward regional and Eastern-mediated diplomacy. Iran is trying to hold on to its remaining ace, control of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategy that the US calls illegal. Meanwhile, Israel continues to keep its forces busy on the Lebanese border, maintaining that it is outside of the current ceasefire agreement.

The Iran war is hitting the Philippines hard: fuel prices have surged to record highs, inflation breached the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target early, and over two million overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in the Middle East face risks to their safety and livelihood. The government had to declare a national energy emergency, underscoring the severity of the crisis.

More than 3,000 OFWs have already been repatriated, but most face uncertain employment prospects at home, even as the government fast-tracks reskilling programs for them.

We all know that large-scale displacement could reduce remittance inflows, a critical lifeline for the Philippine economy.

The world is now at a crossroads. Countries are anxiously hoping for positive outcomes in the ongoing talks between the two sides in Islamabad. One thing is certain: the geopolitical map of 2026 looks nothing like the world we knew just a few months ago.

The author is an executive member of the National Innovation Council and lead convener of the Alliance for Technology Innovators for the Nation (ATIN). ([email protected])