Despite the suspended strikes among the United States (US), Iran, and Israel, early oil market trading suggested price spikes could continue next week.

Based on the average Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) during the first two days of this week, diesel is estimated to rise by ₱4 to ₱5 per liter, which could push pump prices to ₱175 per liter once realized.

Gasoline prices, on the other hand, could inch up by ₱1 to ₱2 per liter, potentially raising current pump prices to as high as ₱120 per liter next week.

While the Department of Energy (DOE) has already sought to manage motorists’ expectations that rollbacks may not be as quick as the recent war-level prices, Jetti Petroleum said it is uncertain whether the recent ceasefire announcement could bring substantial downward price movements.

“The movement next week could make a U-turn, from a potential increase as tracked from the first two days MOPS average, to a possible status quo or rollback due to the easing of MOPS prices because of the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East,” said Jetti president Leo Bellas.

“The significant unwinding of the war premium that was incorporated into prices and has built up due to the conflict can lead to a sharp decline in crude oil and refined fuel prices from exorbitant levels, but will likely still remain elevated because the supply situation has not changed,” he explained.

A two-week pause among these warring nations could benefit the global market; however, Bellas warned that markets may bounce back in the following trading days due to other factors, such as significant damage to energy infrastructure, which will require more restoration time.

These concerns arose after US President Donald Trump announced the temporary ceasefire with Iran ahead of his request to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.