The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is prepared to adjust and potentially lower its investment and export targets for the year as the ongoing war in the Middle East casts a shadow over global trade and the country’s investment appeal.

Trade Secretary Cristina Roque told reporters that the current crisis may leave the DTI with no choice but to revise this year’s targets to reflect the looming uncertainty over the country’s merchandise exports and investment pledges.

“Definitely, we will have to meet regarding that,” she said. “It seems like right now there are crises everywhere. So everything will be at a standstill until at least this is over.”

If the Middle East war persists for a large part of the year, Roque expects the growth of the country’s merchandise exports to be “sluggish.”

Last week, Roque told Manila Bulletin that exports may stagnate this year if fuel prices continue to soar and supply disruptions intensify.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), merchandise exports reached $14.47 billion by the end of February, up 8.3 percent from $13.36 billion in the same period last year.

Since the United States (US) and Israel launched attacks against Iran on Feb. 28, the conflict’s impact on Philippine exports will likely surface in the export figures for March and the succeeding months.

In a related development, Roque said investments registered with the Board of Investments (BOI) may also slow down this year despite growth in the first two months of the year.

Based on BOI data, the number of approved projects by the investment promotion agency (IPA) surged by 338 percent to 35 projects worth ₱47 billion from January to February, higher than the eight projects recorded in the same period last year.

For the year, the BOI has set a target of ₱1 trillion in investment approvals, well below its total investment haul of ₱1.56 trillion last year.

The lower target was attributed to the expected slowdown in investments in the renewable energy (RE) sector. However, Roque now anticipates projects in this sector to account for one of the largest shares of this year’s investment pledges.

The potential reduction in the BOI’s targets is also influenced by the government’s move to temporarily scale down its investment missions abroad as a cost-cutting measure.

For instance, Roque said they were initially scheduled to engage with potential investors in Europe last March, which has since been canceled.

“Right now, the main focus is really keeping food prices in the Philippines stable,” she said, referring to basic necessities and prime commodities that the DTI oversees.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) sees no adjustments yet to its target of ₱300 billion worth of investment pledges for the year.

“So far, our ecozone investments and exports are even increasing,” PEZA Director General Tereso Panga told Manila Bulletin.

For the first two months, investments registered with PEZA fell by 33 percent to ₱35.37 billion from ₱52.93 billion in the same period last year.

As a mitigation measure for its locators, the IPA is pushing for the expansion of the 50-percent work-from-home (WFH) limit in ecozones to 100 percent, providing registered business enterprises (RBEs) additional leeway to adjust their operations without forfeiting their government incentives.