Fiscal indicators under the Duterte administration generally trended upward, though the pattern was heavily shaped by the pandemic shock mid-term. In the early pre-pandemic years, revenues grew steadily, bolstered by improved tax administration and the initial impact of the TRAIN reforms.

The revenue effort rose from approximately 14.9 percent of GDP in 2017 to about 16.1 percent in 2019, consistent with the administration’s strategy of strengthening the fiscal base. On the expenditure side, spending increased even more rapidly, rising from 17.1 percent of GDP in 2017 to 19.5 percent in 2019, while infrastructure disbursements climbed steadily under the “Build, Build, Build” program. This addressed the chronic underspending patterns of earlier administrations, where infrastructure investment rarely exceeded three percent of GDP.

For obvious reasons, this trajectory shifted sharply during the pandemic. Revenues weakened in 2020 as economic activity contracted, while expenditures surged to fund health-related measures, social protection, and stimulus programs. Consequently, the deficit widened to -7.6 percent of GDP in 2020 and remained elevated at -8.6 percent in 2021. The debt-to-GDP ratio followed suit, rising from 39.6 percent in 2019 to 60.9 percent by 2022. It has proven very difficult for the BBM administration to pull that ratio back down to the 30 percent range. To the credit of the Duterte administration, despite the pandemic crisis, infrastructure spending was largely sustained at nearly six percent of GDP in 2022, matching the average across the ASEAN region.

The composition of spending remained anchored in social and economic services, generally continuing the sectoral priorities of the Aquino administration but on a larger fiscal scale. Social services consistently accounted for the lion's share of expenditures, rising from 36–37 percent in the early years to a peak of 40.7 percent in 2020, before easing to 36.4 percent by 2022. Economic services generally hovered around one-third of total spending, dipping to 26.2 percent in 2020 and recovering to 32.6 percent by the end of the term. Meanwhile, the shares for general public services and defense remained relatively stable. Net lending, while a small portion of the total, exhibited the greatest volatility; its share spiked in 2020 due to pandemic interventions but returned to minimal levels thereafter. This was reflected in borrowing rates, which surged during the crisis—particularly for net lending—before normalizing by 2022.

Ultimately, the fiscal management team under the Duterte administration did a commendable job of crisis management. Working in tandem with monetary authorities, they minimized the economic harm inflicted by the pandemic. By 2021, revenues again exceeded program targets while expenditures remained below target, resulting in a narrower, positive deficit variance. By the end of the presidential term in 2022, both revenues and expenditures were above programmed levels as the economy normalized, leaving the fiscal balance with a small positive variance.

In July 2022, the BBM administration assumed office amid a fragile post-pandemic recovery marked by elevated inflation, limited fiscal space, and heightened global uncertainty. Although growth had rebounded to an impressive 7.7 percent in 2022, inflation reached 5.6 percent—well above the 2 to 4 percent target band. Unemployment also remained slightly above the target range. These conditions shaped both the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023–2028 and the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), which together defined the administration’s macro-fiscal direction.

Under this framework, real GDP growth was targeted at a high of 6.5 to 8.0 percent, with inflation within the two to four percent band and unemployment on a gradual downward path. On the fiscal side, the MTFF adopted a "consolidation-with-growth" approach. Revenue effort was programmed to rise from 15.3 to 17.6 percent of GDP, while expenditure effort was set to ease. The fiscal deficit was projected to decline from around 6.5 percent of GDP in 2022 to about 3.0 percent by the end of the plan period, alongside a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 63.7 percent to about 51.1 percent. It may take time before this ratio returns to the 30 percent level seen before the pandemic. It must be noted, however, that debt-to-GDP ratios of 100 percent or more are common in countries like Japan and the US

Unlike the two previous administrations, which relied primarily on PDPs and DBCC macro-fiscal programs as executive planning documents, the BBM administration’s fiscal targets were formally endorsed by Congress through Senate Concurrent Resolution No. 3. For this reason, this article uses the MTFF targets under that resolution as the principal macro-fiscal reference. To attain these targets, the administration adopted a coordinated strategy combining growth restoration with fiscal consolidation. On the macro side, policy focused on reviving investment, containing inflation, rebuilding human capital, and improving institutional productivity. Growth was to be supported through the CREATE MORE Law (RA 12066), which drives investment incentives, liberalization reforms, and expanded physical and digital infrastructure. Inflation management centered on food and energy security, lower logistics costs, and prudent monetary policy, while education and health programs addressed "pandemic scarring."

On the fiscal side, the MTFF aimed to raise revenues through new tax measures—such as VAT on digital services—alongside the modernization of the BIR and BOC. Expenditures were programmed to remain above 20 percent of GDP, with infrastructure sustained at five to six percent and priority funding allocated to health, education, and social protection. Over time, the deficit and debt ratios are intended to decline through expenditure controls, pension and rightsizing reforms, and expanded private sector participation in infrastructure.

Responsible fiscal management was especially evident in addressing the high debt-to-GDP ratio resulting from the massive borrowings necessitated by the pandemic. This prudent management enabled the economy to broadly track the MTFF path, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 60.9 percent in 2022, 60.1 percent in 2023, and 60.7 percent in 2024. However, pressures from higher interest rates, inflation, and global uncertainties will likely keep the ratio close to the 60-percent IMF indicative benchmark for emerging economies. It will take time to see these levels reduced to the pre-pandemic thirties—especially as we face global oil prices reaching $140 per barrel in early 2026 due to the conflict between the U.S.-Israel and Iran.