The Philippines is poised to increase its corn imports to nearly two million metric tons this marketing year as recovering livestock sector and expanding industrial demand outpace local harvests, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

In a report published last week, the USDA revised its projection for the country’s corn imports to 1.95 million MT for MY 2025–2026, 100,000 MT higher than its initial forecast of 1.85 million MT.

The international agency attributed the upward adjustment to the rebound in the country’s hog population from January to October last year, which falls within the current MY, which started in July and will end in June this year.

“[This is] coupled with expanding demand from the poultry, aquaculture, and pet food industries, resulting in increased feed corn requirements,” the USDA said.

With this increased demand, total corn consumption during the period is projected to rise by more than two percent to 10.15 million MT from the previous year’s 9.95 million MT.

Food, seed, and industrial consumption is seen increasing its share of total demand to 4.4 million MT from 4.2 million MT, while corn for feed and residual use is expected to retain the larger share at 5.75 million MT.

The USDA expects local corn production to dip slightly to 8.27 million MT from 8.33 million MT, largely due to typhoon damage in key producing regions such as Cagayan Valley.

While there were signs of improved yields during the first half of the MY, the third quarter of 2025 saw the sector sustain significant typhoon-related losses.

“Although local corn production faced typhoon-related losses, the resulting supply gap is being addressed through increased imports, ensuring that feed and food manufacturers can meet their requirements,” the USDA said.

For the upcoming MY 2026–2027, the USDA said domestic output will likely register modest growth to 8.28 million MT under favorable weather conditions.

However, the agency warned that the risk of El Niño developing in the second half of the year, which may lead to a more intense southwest monsoon season and increased weather variability, could dampen prospects for output growth.

As such, the USDA said the country’s corn imports for the next MY may increase to two million MT, which would help meet total corn consumption of 10.25 million MT.

“Demand from the feed and food sectors—particularly poultry, aquaculture, and processed foods—continues to drive higher corn consumption and imports,” it said.