Motorists and transport operators are bracing for another double-digit spike in fuel prices next week, as volatile shift in Middle East geopolitical rhetoric continues to rattle global energy benchmarks.

Based on four days of trading under the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the regional pricing benchmark, the price of diesel is projected to rise by ₱17 to ₱19 per liter. Gasoline prices are also expected to climb, with estimates pointing to an increase of ₱3 to ₱5 per liter.

Should these adjustments be implemented in full, retail diesel prices at the pump could surge to ₱166 per liter, nearing a historic ₱170 threshold, while gasoline could settle around ₱120 per liter.

The price volatility is largely a byproduct of a fragile supply-demand balance in Asia, exacerbated by the risk of military escalation. While the market initially found some relief earlier this week on signals that the United States (US) was winding down operations against Iran, that sentiment reversed sharply on Thursday, April 2.

Oil traders and producers reacted to new announcements of potential military aggression within the next two to three weeks, a development that immediately tightened risk premiums.

“Tight supply in the region continues to support the prices of diesel and gasoline,” said an industry expert, who requested anonymity as they are not authorized to speak for the sector. “Price volatility remains due to mixed signals of escalation and de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.”

For the Philippines, a net importer of fuel, the secondary effects of these price hikes threaten to strain the broader economy. High fuel costs typically lead to petitions for fare increases from the public transport sector and upward pressure on the delivery costs of consumer goods.

Despite the brief window of de-escalation earlier in the week, the renewed threat of supply strains in the Persian Gulf has forced local oil companies to prepare for substantial upward adjustments to reflect the increased cost of importing finished petroleum products.

Investors and consumers alike are now monitoring whether the government will provide targeted subsidies to the transport sector to mitigate the impact of what could be one of the most significant weekly price hikes in recent years.