Just like everyone else, I've been watching how the Middle East conflict is unfolding and praying that somehow all the parties involved realize that peace is better than war. The economic ripples of the conflict are already showing up at sari-sari stores, tricycle drivers, retailers, and small manufacturers like mine used to be when I started with gravel and sand in 1975. With our heavy reliance on imports and so many OFWs in the region, this isn't some far-off problem—it's testing the grit of our small businesses, the ones that keep our neighborhoods alive. I write this column from the perspective of an entrepreneur, as someone who started small and built something from the ground up.

The fuel hikes obviously hit hardest and fastest. We've seen in the past how tensions in the Middle East push global oil prices higher, and this one is no exception. The cost of fuel in the Philippines has climbed sharply, which means more expensive diesel (the price has already breached 100 pesos) for jeepneys and delivery vehicles, and higher electricity costs for small manufacturers, laundromats, carinderias running freezers and chillers, and even co-working spaces that need air-conditioning almost year-round. A micro-entrepreneur, for instance, who runs a food stall in Quezon City cannot hedge fuel costs on global markets; she simply sees the gas bill rise and must decide whether to accept smaller margins or raise prices on customers whose own wallets are already stretched. Every additional peso per liter of fuel is, in effect, a quiet tax on the Filipino small business owner.

In the face of these pressures, what can Filipino entrepreneurs and small business owners realistically do? They cannot control oil prices, but they still have room to act. One thing I learned from dealing with various crises as an entrepreneur is to treat volatility as a normal condition rather than a rare shock. It is more of a mindset: when you expect the worst, then you are better prepared. People will deal with crises in different ways, of course. Businesses exist within different conditions and a variety of factors, so there is no one rule on how to handle crises. But I think we can agree on the need to support micro- and small businesses because they matter in ensuring that our economy survives this current conflict.

It might also be useful to realize that we are all in this together. We are affected in different ways, but we are also impacted as a community, as a nation. Communication with customers, in this sense, is an important tool. Filipino consumers are aware of what is happening; they know fuel prices are rising and transporting goods is more expensive. When we explain modest price adjustments clearly and honestly—emphasizing efforts to maintain quality and offering smaller pack sizes or entry-level options—they preserve trust. In a community setting, a bakery or eatery that tells customers it is adjusting prices to keep staff employed and quality intact is more likely to retain loyalty than one that silently cuts portions or ingredients. In times of uncertainty, transparency itself becomes a competitive advantage.

Still, it is unfair to expect small and micro businesses to face geopolitical storms alone. The public sector has a crucial role in cushioning the blow and strengthening the resilience of the small business sector ahead of future crises. Energy policy is the clearest starting point. While the Philippines cannot fully escape imported fuel, it can design targeted relief when global prices spike, such as time-bound fuel subsidies or vouchers for transport cooperatives, delivery-dependent MSMEs, and small farmers and fishers who are also entrepreneurs in their own right. The government has already announced fuel subsidies and other assistance that can certainly help many small operations, keeping them viable and allowing them to survive this crisis.

Credit support is equally important. Micro- and small businesses often operate with thin capital and limited access to affordable loans. Development banks and other financial institutions can provide short-term working capital under simplified terms. The aim is not to subsidize failing business models indefinitely, but to prevent fundamentally viable enterprises from being wiped out by global events over which they have no control.

The Middle East may be thousands of kilometers away, but its conflicts are now part of the operating environment for every Filipino entrepreneur who relies on fuel, imports, remittances, or global demand. The task for both business owners and policymakers is to accept that reality without surrendering to it: to redesign small businesses and support systems so that the next geopolitical shock is painful, perhaps, but not fatal.

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