President Marcos’ declaration of a state of national energy emergency was a timely preemptive strike against volatile global crude markets rather than a delayed reaction, according to private sector economists, who warned that Filipino consumers must still prepare for a prolonged period of elevated fuel costs.

SMIC Group economist Robert Dan Roces believes the timing of the President’s move “looks about right—early enough to show control, but not so fast that it feels reactive,” a position shared by Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBank), describing it as “appropriate rather than delayed.”

UnionBank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said the declaration comes as inflationary pressures, especially on transport and delivery, have become more evident. These demand a more coordinated response from the government.

For Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan Ravelas, the Marcos administration is being precautionary in preparing for potential shocks, downplaying the idea that the national government has gone into panic mode.

“It tells markets the government is getting ahead of Middle East risks and preparing for a potentially prolonged oil shock, not just a short-term spike,” Ravelas said, noting that what is visible now is a display of readiness.

“This is about preparedness—and the practical message for Filipinos and businesses is to brace for higher costs, manage cash carefully, and not assume oil risks will fade quickly,” he cautioned.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael Ricafort echoed Ravelas’ view, saying the government is preparing the country should supply situations reach the worst-case scenario.

Comparing it to disaster preparedness, Ricafort stressed that the most important point is increased readiness for future emergencies, with calculated solutions for a worst-case scenario.

According to Malacañang, Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency in response to ongoing military hostilities in the Middle East that have caused wild swings in global oil prices.

Marcos Jr. said in Executive Order No. 110 that the move was prompted by the looming danger of an energy scarcity resulting from disruptions in global energy passages such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil flows.

Roces said steady government action in times of crisis builds confidence. He added that the public should anticipate “targeted moves such as close coordination between fiscal and monetary policy to keep inflation in check.”

Note that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has recently shifted to a more hawkish tone, with the market now pricing in a potential hike from the current 4.25 percent at the upcoming April policy meeting.

Under the President’s declaration, the Department of Finance (DOF) and other concerned agencies are ordered to closely monitor the impact of the Iran war on the Philippine peso, overseas Filipino (OF) remittances, and the overall economy.

Ravelas said monetary authorities could be left with limited space to further reduce key borrowing costs should oil prices stay elevated.

Higher oil prices could ripple through the foreign exchange market, weakening the peso against the US dollar. Output growth is also seen softening as “costs squeeze consumers and firms.”

With the current state, economists are looking forward to a set of measures the Marcos economic team will deploy.

Asuncion expects the economic team to disburse more fuel subsidies, consider “temporary excise tax adjustments if oil prices remain high, continue stockpiling and supply diversification, and implement energy-saving measures across government and key industries.”

“The focus will be on cushioning vulnerable sectors while avoiding price controls that could distort supply,” Asuncion added.

Solutions expected from the government carry with them temporary risks to collections and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Asuncion said short-term revenue may dip if subsidies or tax cuts expand, but time-bound measures should keep them manageable. Meanwhile, timely support could limit the impact of higher energy costs on GDP growth.

Further, Roces argued that while it entails some pressure on revenues and GDP expansion, “acting now helps prevent a sharper inflation spike and more disruptive measures later.”