There are two schools of thought floating today regarding the chaos in the Middle East involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, plus a handful of other countries in that oil-rich region.

One says the conflict will remain at its current level, will no longer escalate, but will persist for a long time. It will just be a global “pain in the neck,” relegated to some obscure corner of international consciousness over time.

The other school of thought says the conflict will escalate, will involve more countries, incur greater casualties, and may even be a prelude to another world war.

At this point, we cannot tell which school of thought is correct. We do hope there will be no further escalation, but there are indications to the contrary. Over the weekend, we heard news that the United States appears set to deploy foot soldiers in Iran. We shudder at the thought that an infantry invasion would put more American lives in harm’s way. When casualties mount, the US may exact retaliatory measures, thus further raising the level of conflict.

Regardless of which school of thought is correct, the fact remains that the conflict has already caused significant damage to both global and local economies. Crude oil prices in the international market have hit record highs, driving up production and transportation costs worldwide. International media calls this an “energy shock” – an appropriate term since this development has a paralyzing effect. The relentless rise in oil prices has led to higher costs for goods and services and higher public transportation passenger fares, reducing consumer purchasing power and economic activity.

We have yet to find a school of thought that says this will be a short “excursion,” as the US President put it. Still, we hope the conflict ends soon and that the world returns to business as usual, though at this point, this may be nothing more than wishful thinking.

It is said that the problem with war is that some rake in profits from it.

As a professor from London’s Kingston University wrote:

“One of the most uncomfortable truths about this (Iran) conflict is that while it inflicts pain on some, it creates windfall for others.”

“Peace benefits ordinary citizens, small businesses, global supply chains, and the planet’s climate trajectory, but the beneficiaries of war are more concentrated,” he added in an internet article. He called that situation “the paradox of incentives.”

We are clearly not beneficiaries of this war; instead, we are collateral casualties. The missiles raining down in the Middle East are – in a figurative way – also “hitting” us where it hurts most: our livelihood, our daily routine, our pockets, and our faith in the future.

Friends and constituents have asked me how one can cope with times such as these. Their concern is understandable. Anxiety strikes hardest when one feels he or she has lost control over circumstances and the future, and this sense of helplessness is only compounded by social media, now littered with images of an escalating war.

To address these concerns, we advocate the triple “A” approach: “Aware; Accept; Adapt.”

Step one is to be aware of what is happening, how it is affecting us, and how we feel about it. During stressful times, some psychologists recommend naming our feelings. By naming them, we can better recognize and manage our emotions.

Step two is to accept the present reality, the risks it poses to our essentials in life, and how we feel about it. Denial does not help. Embracing reality, on the other hand, is an important and major step.

Step three is to adapt — to make adjustments, to find new ways of coping, to formulate new strategies that will help us survive and thrive in the midst of current realities.

We will don our medical doctor’s hat for a while in this next item. The three “As” approach allows the cerebrum, specifically the frontal lobe, to do its job well—this area enables logical and rational thinking, as well as analysis, reasoning, planning, and decision-making.

It is interesting that this part of the human brain requires something essential to function well. It needs the brain's owner to be in a state called “calm.” This is why there are times we tell ourselves to calm down and think. In a way, the frontal lobe of the cerebrum is where real “thinking” happens.

Ultimately, the triple “A” approach offers a concrete technique for maintaining calm and enabling clearer thinking.

When we can use this part of the brain, we can think of ways to “adapt” to current realities. We are starting to see the effects of using this part of the brain. For example, it looks like many have started planning their daily trips better, rearranging their work and life schedules, doing away with non-essentials, and focusing on what really matters.

By coming up with new ways to ensure life could go on despite the tension in the Middle East, people can cope and find new reasons to keep their hopes for an end to the chaos alive.

In this spirit, let us pray for peace and an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, let us remain calm and allow our frontal lobes to guide us through these challenging times.

(The author is a Doctor of Medicine, an entrepreneur and the mayor of Antipolo City, former Rizal governor, and DENR assistant secretary, LLDA general manager. Email: [email protected])