The government is bracing for a potential windfall of foreign capital as it awaits a definitive decision from JPMorgan Chase & Co. on the inclusion of the Philippines’ sovereign debt in the key emerging-market index.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go expressed optimism Friday, March 13, that the Wall Street lender will conclude its assessment by the end of March or early April.

“We are hopeful that we will be included by the end of March or early April,” Go told the Manila Bulletin.

While Go declined to specify the exact drivers behind his confidence, the inclusion in the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) would mark a milestone in Manila's efforts to deepen its capital markets and diversify its investor base.

National Treasurer Sharon P. Almanza also confirmed to Manila Bulletin that JPMorganChase’s announcement may indeed happen between March and April. There remains no word on how this would affect the government’s peso bond allocation in global indices and overall borrowing mix.

According to the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Asia Bond Monitor for March 2026, the investor profile in the Philippines’ local currency (LCY) government bond market remained largely stable in 2025, with banks and investment houses remaining the largest group, increasing their share to 46.4 percent by year-end.

Holdings by brokers, custodians, and depositories rose to 12.9 percent, while foreign holdings inched up to 4.8 percent, supported by improvements in market liquidity and optimism over potential inclusion in JPMorgan’s index.

JPMorgan’s index, covering 19 markets, is the leading benchmark for emerging market LCY government bonds and is closely watched by global investors.

If included, the Philippines would hold an estimated one-percent share of the index.

“Inclusion is expected to broaden foreign investor participation in the economy’s LCY bond market, which in turn could enhance market liquidity, reduce government borrowing costs, and unlock additional funding sources for public services and infrastructure,” the Manila-based multilateral lender earlier said.

Last month, Almanza said the government is overhauling its bond pricing conventions to match global standards in anticipation of securing a one-percent share in the influential index. Such a move is expected to trigger billions of pesos in foreign inflows.

Almanza said that the Philippines could attract more than $2 billion, or approximately ₱114 billion, in additional foreign investment with the expected one-percent weighting in the index. This is on top of the current inflows the Philippines has been receiving from foreign investors.

For 2026, the government is targeting ₱627.1 billion from foreign sources, while the larger share of ₱2.05 trillion will be sourced from domestic creditors.

Recall that the government’s total debt climbed to a fresh high of ₱18.13 trillion in January, as the Marcos administration frontloaded its borrowing program to lock in lower interest rates before global market conditions tighten.

Debt levels are also projected to exceed ₱19 trillion by the end of 2026, growing 7.3 percent from the end-2025 debt of ₱17.71 trillion.

The government plans to fund 80 percent of its borrowing domestically through treasury bills and bonds, and 20 percent externally, relying on local banks with ample liquidity while limiting foreign exchange (forex) risks.