In times of war, leadership is measured not in speeches but in presence and coherent action. War is never distant; it comes crashing into markets, highways, and kitchens. When missiles fly in one part of the world, every nation feels the ripple – oil prices spike, supply chains strain, and inflation surges.

The Philippines is among the most vulnerable countries affected by the US-Iran War due to our near-total oil import dependence and millions of overseas Filipino workers (OFW) in the Middle East. Amid this crisis, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s just-concluded trip to New York has drawn criticism for its poor timing. 

While global engagement is important, Filipinos are facing huge increases in fuel prices and economic ripple effects of the so-called Gulf War III. Many believe that crisis management also requires visible leadership at home – reassuring citizens, coordinating domestic responses, and stabilizing markets.

By traveling abroad ostensibly for United Nations meetings and international diplomacy while prices soar, Marcos risks projecting detachment and insensitivity to the plight of Filipinos who are feeling the pinch daily and for whom every peso counts. Although his administration has been monitoring fuel supply and OFW safety, optics still matter: crisis leadership is about being present where the impact is felt most.

On one hand, Marcos said the Philippine economy can withstand shocks and has enough economic buffers to absorb the effects of the Middle East conflict. On the other hand, Malacañang ordered the implementation of a four-day workweek for offices in the executive department. The official Palace explanation cited energy conservation and reduction of operational costs. 

This sends a signal that the economy is under strain – contradicting the “sufficient buffers” narrative. The message itself is contradictory: if buffers truly exist, normal government operations should continue. For ordinary Filipinos faced with skyrocketing fuel prices and office closures, these two messages clash and thereby undermine public confidence in the government.

Meanwhile, Marcos has ordered the close monitoring of exchange rate fluctuations and the impact on OFW remittances, thereby signaling concern for their welfare. At the same time, he advised OFWs in the Gulf region to shelter in place – creating tension between economic protection and personal safety. The mixed guidance leaves many OFWs uncertain about priorities, while citizens perceive this as double talk that makes them lose trust in government officials.

Further complicating matters was Marcos’ statement that the Philippines does not have American bases and will not be involved in the Middle East conflict. This claim added to public confusion and is partly misleading because of the rotational bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA as well as prepositioned US military assets. Downplaying this reality is tantamount to misinforming the public regarding strategic vulnerabilities. So is the alleged non-existence of EDCA bases considered ghost projects?

Despite years of warnings, the Philippines has no national petroleum reserve up to now. China supplies around 25 percent of our refined petroleum imports, and it has ordered its largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline. The suspension tightens Asian supply at a time when the US-Iran War has already strained the market. Around 90 percent of the Philippines’ crude oil imports come from the Middle East, making the country vulnerable to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

At about the same time when the US-Israel alliance was bombing Iran and assassinating its supreme leader, Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Jing Quan delivered the embassy's promised $1-million cash assistance for victims of recent typhoons that hit the Philippines. The donation was received by Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) Secretary Rex Gatchalian. This was on top of China’s $10-million donation of emergency supplies channeled previously through DSWD. 

Other countries are navigating the Middle East conflict with emphasis on economic stability, citizen protection, security and coordination. In a world defined by uncertainty, crisis leadership is judged not by rhetoric – but by coherent action, transparency, and presence.