Remember that saying, “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold?” In this case, America just let out a thunderclap of a sneeze that shook the Middle East—and we’re about to come down with a raging fever. The Philippines may be thousands of kilometers away from the region, but our economy is tightly linked to what happens there. When tensions rise in that part of the world, the impact eventually reaches our ports, gas stations, groceries, and even the homes of families who depend on overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

The Philippine economy runs largely on imported fuel, with most crude and refined products coming from oil producing countries, many of them in the Middle East. Any disruption in production or shipping—whether due to war, blockades, or attacks on tankers—can push global oil prices higher and make energy more expensive for us. As I write this, oil companies are poised to increase prices by as much as ₱25 per liter, and analysts expect this latest Mideast conflict to last about five weeks, so we can expect prices to go even higher.

Higher oil prices seep into almost everything. Transport fares go up as operators—who will surely demand fare increases—try to cushion higher fuel costs. Delivery expenses rise, so goods on supermarket shelves become pricier. Fisherfolk spend more for every trip to sea, small factories see their power bills jump, and ordinary families trim their budgets to cope with higher costs of living. Inflation becomes harder to tame when fuel prices stay elevated for long periods.

There is also a human element to this. For decades, the Middle East has been a top destination for our kababayans—engineers in Saudi Arabia, hotel staff in the United Arab Emirates, nurses in Qatar, seafarers crossing the region’s waters. Their remittances have long served as a lifeline for the Philippine economy, supporting millions of households and contributing significantly to domestic consumption.

In times of conflict, however, this lifeline can be strained. A prolonged crisis can lead to layoffs, delayed salaries, or even mass repatriation. Flight closures and security risks can complicate evacuation plans. Families back home who rely on monthly remittances may suddenly face uncertainty, with bills, tuition, and daily needs piling up. If enough OFWs are affected, the broader economy also feels the pinch. Less remittance money means weaker consumer spending, especially in regions with many overseas workers, and businesses that cater to remittance fed households.

Geopolitical shocks also tend to unsettle global financial markets, which can weaken the Philippine peso. A softer peso makes imported goods—oil, wheat, machinery, fertilizers—more expensive in local currency terms. That adds another layer of pressure on inflation, on top of already higher fuel prices. For the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, this creates a difficult balancing act: raise interest rates to contain inflation but risk slowing growth, or keep rates lower and risk letting inflation linger.

Yet crises can also open doors for change. I’ve learned that from the many crises my businesses have gone through in the past. The current Middle East tensions, like earlier global shocks, can be a wake up call for the Philippines to build a more resilient, less import dependent economic model.

One clear area is energy. Perhaps this crisis—which is definitely not the last—will finally force our hand to invest aggressively in renewable sources: solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal. The Philippines already has significant geothermal and hydro resources, and solar power is becoming cheaper worldwide. Scaling up these projects and modernizing the power grid can reduce our exposure to oil price spikes over time.

Another opportunity lies in transport. Encouraging electric vehicles—especially public transport fleets like jeepneys and buses—paired with cleaner power sources could ease the country’s vulnerability to oil shocks in the long term. Urban planning that favors mass transit and walkable communities, something I had been batting for when I was still in the legislature, can also reduce overall fuel use.

These measures require political will and consistent execution, not just hurried reactions when the crisis is already at its worst.

What I am saying is that we need to be smart and strategic in our response to this latest crisis. It is a reminder that the Philippines lives in an interconnected world. Our fuel prices, our currency, and the livelihoods of millions of Filipinos abroad are linked to events far beyond our borders.

In the long run, the question is not whether global crises will come—they will. The real question is whether the Philippines will be ready, not just to endure them, but to emerge stronger each time. That is where both government policy and public action must meet: in a shared effort to turn every shock into a step toward a more resilient future.

For comments, please send email to: [email protected] and/ or mannyvillar.com.