Record oil price hike looms: Diesel could jump ₱16 next week
Published Mar 4, 2026 06:45 pm
A Gas station in Davao City displays current pump prices as of March 5, 2026, amid warnings of a significant price increase next week. Energy officials and local retailers are monitoring the market closely as geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to drive up global oil costs. (Photo by Keith Bacongco I MB)
Motorists face one of the largest weekly fuel price increases on record as escalating military conflict in the Middle East disrupts global supply chains and sends regional benchmarks soaring.
Diesel prices may rise by as much as ₱16 per liter next week, while gasoline is projected to increase by ₱7.7 pesos, according to preliminary trading data. The spike follows a volatile three-day trading period for the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the primary pricing benchmark for refined petroleum in Southeast Asia.
Crude oil markets have remained under intense pressure since the March 1 escalation of hostilities involving the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, which has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and suspended approximately 20% percentof global seaborne oil traffic.
“World oil prices are likely to remain volatile with high upside bias,” an industry expert said on Wednesday, March 5.
The upward momentum in Singapore trading reflects the growing risk premium as traders account for the physical disruption of oil flows from major Middle Eastern producers to Asian refineries.
The Department of Energy (DOE) is now weighing a series of interventions to blunt the inflationary impact of the surge.
While Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has urged fuel retailers to consider staggering the price adjustments, the industry remains divided.
At least one major retailer indicated that current inventory costs and market volatility make tranches impractical, though the government is continuing to coordinate with oil companies to prevent a “one-time, big-time” shock to the consumer prices.
To mitigate long-term exposure to the Persian Gulf, the DOE has advised importers to seek alternative crude sources from the US, Canada, and South America.
Officials confirmed that the national buffer stock remains stable, with current inventories holding at roughly 30 days of supply—well above the 15-day regulatory minimum.
As of early March, gasoline in Metro Manila typically retailed between ₱53 and ₱70.5 per liter, while diesel was priced between ₱60.79 and ₱61.49.
A ₱16 adjustment would represent a nearly 25 percent overnight jump for diesel, potentially triggering fare hikes in the transport sector and adding pressure on the central bank to manage headline inflation.