Higher cost pressures from rice and fish, compounded by elevated petroleum prices, could have quickened headline inflation to as fast as 3.1 percent in February, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has forecast.

“Upward price pressures could stem from higher prices of rice and fish, elevated domestic petroleum prices, and increased electricity charges in Manila Electric Co. (Meralco)-serviced areas,” the BSP said in a statement on Friday, Feb. 27.

In particular, the BSP expects consumer price increases to clock in at between 2.3 percent and 3.1 percent. Even the lower bound of the forecast would be faster than January inflation at two percent. It bears recalling that BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. previously said it would be a concern if inflation exceeds three percent.

Emilio S. Neri Jr., senior vice president and lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), has projected inflation to have accelerated to three percent year-on-year in February.

For the Ayala-led lender’s economist, the anticipated inflation spike was mainly driven by persistent rice and energy costs.

These pressures, Neri said, include a four-percent increase in well-milled rice prices amid delayed January imports after the extended rice ban was lifted. Annual rice deflation was slower in January, settling at 8.5 percent from a faster 12.3 percent in December 2025.

Neri likewise pointed to upward pressures stemming from firmer oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $65 per barrel, its highest level in seven months.

“These pressures, however, may be partly offset by lower prices of vegetables, fruits, and meat, as well as peso appreciation,” Neri said.

“If realized, headline inflation could approach or breach four percent as early as April, largely contingent on the rice demand-supply dynamics in the coming months,” Neri noted.

As such, Neri believes wider consumer price swings and elevated inflation risks may prompt the BSP to revisit market expectations for an additional reduction in key borrowing costs by year-end.

Remolona’s refrain is prioritizing inflation in policy decisions.

“We will continue focusing on inflation. However, there’s a large element of uncertainty that we’re facing, particularly regarding how quickly confidence will come back. That is where we stand,” Remolona said earlier.

This prompted the BSP to tweak its inflation assumptions upward to 3.6 percent from 3.2 percent for 2026, and to 3.2 percent from three percent for 2027.