Local economists have penciled in inflation to continue picking up pace in February but remain within the target range, following January’s print, amid sustained oil price pressures and the impact of a low base effect.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) wrote in a Feb. 27 commentary that it forecasts headline inflation to clock in at 2.4 percent in February, faster than January’s print of two percent and February 2024’s 2.1 percent.

This was Metrobank’s forecast, citing low base effects that the lender sees beginning to kick in and fuel inflation over the next few months. It added that the monetary policy easing of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which sets a benchmark for lending costs, “will take time to manifest in price levels.”

Reyes Tacandong & Co. Ravelas senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas has also projected faster inflation this month, similarly pricing in 2.4 percent, pointing to oil prices as a major external threat to the costs of domestic goods and services.

On this risk, Ravelas cited upward pressure from tensions in the Middle East, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, tighter supply from petroleum-exporting countries, and stronger global demand.

“Domestically, that shows up first in fuel and transport, then feeds into food distribution, utilities, and fares. It wasn’t a sharp spike, but the steady creep in oil prices is notable—because even small increases can pass through quickly, especially with peso effects,” Ravelas said.

As such, the economist blamed the inflation risks not on shocks, but on persistent price pressures, particularly oil.

Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Undersecretary and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa cautioned that escalating global oil prices likely drove up domestic energy and transport costs in February, potentially ending a period of cooling inflation as external supply shocks filter through to the local economy.

Mapa noted that the current price trajectory for crude is significantly higher than last year's levels.

Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist at Metrobank, agrees with the national statistician on keeping a keen eye on oil price swings, noting that “previous episodes of elevated inflation in the Philippines were generally on the back of an oil price spike, a rice price spike, or a combination of both.”

For Metrobank, energy, alongside food and rental prices, will remain the drivers of headline inflation in February. Meanwhile, rice and onions are seen offsetting the upward trend.

Contrary to the PSA’s flagged risk, the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) sees more risk in rice price movements. Recall that annual rice deflation was slower in January, settling at 8.5 percent from a faster 12.3 percent in December 2025.

If the persistent risk in oil prices transmits to the headline print, BPI lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. said a higher February print would not come as a surprise.