The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) warned that escalating global oil prices likely drove up domestic energy and transport costs in February, potentially ending a period of cooling inflation as external supply shocks filter through to the local economy.

National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said on Wednesday, Feb. 25, that consistent weekly increases in petroleum prices have emerged as the primary risk to the February consumer price index.

Mapa noted that the current price trajectory for crude is significantly higher than levels recorded during the same period last year.

“We have external factors to consider. One possible risk for February is the price of oil, as it has been increasing every week. These weekly hikes pose risks, and the total increase is higher than during the same period last year,” Mapa told reporters

While preliminary data are still under review, Mapa noted that consumer prices observed in the first half of the month are likely to persist in the second half, especially given that no destructive calamities struck the country.

Mapa, meanwhile, said his team will review the price index if adjustments are particularly notable in rice, cooking oil, vegetables, fish, and meat, noting that these items are volatile.

Sought for his February assumption, Mapa deferred to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which projects that inflation, while expected to exceed three percent this year, will remain within the two- to four-percent target band.

Last week, the BSP revised its inflation forecast upward to 3.6 percent from a rosier 3.2 percent for 2026, and to 3.2 percent from three percent for 2027. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. earlier said it would be a concern if inflation exceeded three percent.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, told Manila Bulletin that global oil prices climbed last month amid mounting geopolitical tensions, including the renewed rift between the United States (US) and Iran.

His initial forecast for the month is two percent, moving steadily month on month.

Asuncion further said oil prices were pushed up even by a fleeting shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a major global supply chokepoint. These developments, he said, added “a clear risk premium to crude benchmarks, pushing Brent toward the $70–72 per barrel range.”

He also said that severe winter weather in North America and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and Russia further tightened short-term oil supply.

“With these factors coinciding, energy is likely to remain one of the key upside contributors to the Philippines’ February inflation print, especially through fuel, LPG, and transport-related costs,” Asuncion said.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) senior research fellow John Paolo Rivera echoed Asuncion’s view that external oil pressures were triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, risking supply disruptions.

“These factors kept global crude prices firm despite uneven global demand,” Rivera said, which led him to project that February inflation would still be driven by price hikes in “transport and electricity through fuel pass-through.”

He added that inflationary pressures may also be driven by higher prices of food items such as rice, fish, and some vegetables, which were affected by weather-related supply disruptions.

“While oil price movements are notable and worth monitoring, their inflation impact may remain manageable unless global crude sustains a sharp and prolonged increase, as domestic demand conditions remain relatively soft and continue to temper broad price pressures,” Rivera said.