Stocks pivot to earnings as economic calendar thins
Published Feb 23, 2026 12:00 am
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Updated Feb 21, 2026 05:39 pm
(from left): Market Operations Division Head Marvin M. Refuerzo, Capital Markets Development Division Head Mark Frederick V. Visda, Corporate Secretary Atty. Aissa V. Encarnacion, Directors Peter B. Favila and Vivian Yuchengco, President & CEO Ramon S. Monzon, Chief Operating Officer Atty. Roel A. Refran, Issuer Regulation Division Head Atty. Marigel M. Baniqued-Garcia, General Counsel Atty. Veronica V. Del Rosario and Technology Division Head Philip A. Driz.
Local stocks are expected to trade on the strength of corporate earnings this week as investors pivot away from a sparse economic calendar and focus on the health of the private sector.
With the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 reporting season underway, analysts suggest corporate performance will be the primary catalyst for a market searching for direction.
Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial Inc., said the market is waiting for specific drivers to sustain recent momentum. He noted that robust results from the country’s largest firms could provide the necessary impetus for the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) to advance.
However, he cautioned that recent trading volumes have remained thin, suggesting that many participants are staying on the sidelines amid lingering concerns over the domestic economic outlook.
The brokerage 2TradeAsia.com characterized the current environment as “tempered-yet-positive” setup for 2026. While the firm expects low double-digit growth in earnings per share, it warned that capital inflows continue to be hampered by political risks and volatility in the foreign exchange markets.
Despite these headwinds, the firm argued that local equities represent a regional bargain, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio significantly below its Southeast Asian peers.
Monetary policy remains a central pillar of investor sentiment. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas recently reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling a decisive shift toward supporting domestic growth as inflation stabilizes.
While the central bank is expected to continue easing through 2026, analysts expect a more measured pace of cuts compared to the aggressive maneuvers seen last year. This trajectory remains sensitive to supply-side disruptions, particularly as the dry season approaches, which typically impacts the agriculture and construction sectors.
In specific equity plays, SM Prime Holdings Inc. remains a favored pick despite a slowdown in residential sales and an uptick in leverage. Richard Laneda, senior research manager at COL Financial Group Inc., maintains a buy rating on the property giant, citing its resilient mall operations as a valuation anchor.
Laneda noted that even under conservative valuation models—excluding the company’s residential segment and reclamation projects—the stock trades at a significant discount. He estimated a fair value of ₱31.89, representing a nearly 50% upside from current levels.
Consumer giant Jollibee Foods Corp. is also drawing positive coverage following its acquisition of South Korean brand Shabu All Day and plans to introduce Compose Coffee to the Philippine market.
Analysts at Abacus Securities Corp. and Unicapital Securities Inc. both recommend the stock, viewing the expansion as a strategic fit for Jollibee’s franchising and supply chain infrastructure. Jeri Alfonso of Unicapital noted that the coffee venture has the potential to capture a substantial portion of the local mid-tier market if the company can replicate its international operational success.