President Marcos’ chief economic manager expects the government’s second-largest revenue agency to cross the historic psychological threshold this year, betting that leadership stability and rebound in trade will end the multi-year streak of narrow misses.

Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go, on Thursday, Feb 12, expressed firm confidence that the Bureau of Customs (BOC) will collect ₱1 trillion in revenues in 2026, a milestone that has remained elusive despite aggressive fiscal targets.

“We have not been able to do it so far—the ₱1 trillion target has been elusive. But I am very confident that this will be the year that we will hit the ₱1 trillion target,” Go declared, banking in part on BOC Commissioner Ariel F. Nepomuceno’s leadership.

It can be noted that the government had forecast BOC collections to soar past ₱1 trillion in 2025, but actual collections only reached ₱934.4 billion, falling short of the ₱958.7 billion target. This shortfall was blamed on weaker imports, especially rice imports, and global price jitters.

Go told Customs officials that their tax collections represent the “largest portion of the budget dedicated to the development projects of our country,” raising pressure on the BOC.

“Your success in revenue generation directly empowers the entire government to maintain prudent fiscal management and fund the nation's priorities,” Go stressed.

Nepomuceno, meanwhile, is taking on the ₱1-trillion revenue challenge, noting that the full-year economic assumptions are “reasonable,” to which the revenue targets of both the Customs and the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) are tied.

“Of course, the economic assumptions are reasonable, doable, and challenging, but still reasonable—as long as they hold and do not change drastically,” said Nepomuceno. “We’re taking the challenge, and that's a good mission. That’s the least we can do to help the economy.”

Nepomuceno is banking on earnings from shipments of agricultural and petroleum products. He explained that while a peso drop is a boon to the agency’s collections, the long-term impact of such a trend remains uncertain.

He said this could also dampen trading activities, leading to a decline in volume. “If the importation signal is weak, volumes will decline, and collections will fall even if the peso value per dollar is higher,” he added.

Nepomuceno is also counting on the recent lifting of the rice import ban to drive higher collection volumes.

To recall, the BOC exceeded its revenue target in January, driven by the recent peso slump and a resurgence in agricultural imports. The agency collected ₱80.7 billion in January, surpassing its monthly goal by ₱513 million.

Nepomuceno said Customs sets internal targets higher than those of the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) to achieve higher collections. This way, even if revenues fall short, they can still meet the DBCC’s goals.

He shared that monthly collections should average about ₱82–₱84 billion, with a daily target of roughly ₱4–₱4.2 billion, depending on the surplus. Having a larger surplus better positions the agency to remain on track for the following month.

While the BOC has other non-traditional revenue streams, including proceeds from auctions of seized luxury cars, as well as penalties and surcharges, Nepomuceno stressed that these are not heavily relied upon for collections.

Go assured the BOC that its collected taxes “are now being spent far better than before.”

“Clearly, our work is not just about increasing government revenue—it is about achieving our economic, security, and developmental goals,” said the finance chief. Economic managers have set the output growth target at five to six percent in 2026.