Rice prices, which spiked across the board in January, could accelerate further in the coming months due to potential hikes in rice import tariffs and the threat of destructive typhoons, according to projections by both domestic and foreign banks.

American financial giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is looking at a potential increase in benchmark rice prices in Vietnam as the main risk to the cost of imported rice.

Last month, authorities modified the rules, allowing import tariffs to rise to as much as 20 percent from the current 15 percent if the Vietnamese government decides to hike the base price of its produce.

“So far, the threshold has not been met, so the import tariff on rice remains at 15 percent. As such, the increase in rice prices has been comparatively contained so far,” Goldman Sachs Economics Research wrote in a Feb. 5 commentary obtained by Manila Bulletin.

While rice prices remained in contraction mode last month, the decline eased month-on-month to 8.5 percent from a deeper 12.3 percent in December 2025. This modestly offset the overall slowdown in food inflation, which fell to 0.7 percent from 1.2 percent in December.

It was the sharp moderation in vegetable price growth that “threw sand in the wheels,” according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

National Statistician and PSA Undersecretary Claire Dennis S. Mapa noted that while rice inflation remains negative year-on-year, prices of the Filipino staple food have been treading an uphill trend on a month-on-month basis.

Mapa reported that regular milled rice averaged ₱43.29 per kilo in January, higher than the ₱41.49 in December. Prices of well-milled rice also climbed to an average of ₱50.05 per kilo from ₱48.25 the previous month.

Special rice likewise saw an uptick to an average of ₱59.79 per kilo from ₱58.38 in December.

This across-the-board increase contributed to the acceleration in prices of prepared meals in restaurants and accommodation services, whose index inched up to four percent in January from 2.4 percent in December last year.

Singapore-based United Overseas Bank Ltd. (UOB) agrees with Goldman Sachs’ view that Philippine inflation risks are skewed to the upside. “We expect inflation to continue trending higher through 2026,” UOB senior economist Julia Goh and economist Loke Siew Ting said in a Feb. 5 report.

While pricing in a continued uptrend, UOB expects the headline rate to settle at a three-percent average—within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target range of two to four percent. Annual consumer price increases within this range are deemed manageable and conducive to economic growth.

UOB cited several contributors to sustained price pressures, including “potential electricity tariff adjustments, higher rice import duties, volatile commodity prices, and adverse weather conditions amid base effects.”

Similarly, Chinabank Research anticipates consumer prices to swing higher in the coming months, citing upward pressure from higher raw material costs, particularly for food.

“Overall food inflation may pick up, as prices of rice, meat, fish, and fruits remain on an uptrend on a monthly basis,” Chinabank wrote, adding that headline inflation could reach the upper half of the BSP target.

“Upside risks to the inflation outlook include food supply constraints, higher energy prices, and upward adjustments in transport fares and minimum wages,” Chinabank said.