According to Colliers Philippines’ fourth quarter property briefing, at the end of 2025, the total stock of condominium units in Metro Manila’s commercial districts is at 178,000, with about half of the total figure coming from Fort Bonifacio and the Bay Area. In the fourth quarter, 2,800 units were completed, totaling 7,400-unit completion at the end of the year.

This year, new units to be completed will nearly double at 12,900 units, and from 2026 to 2028, the forecasted annual average completion is at 7,100 units.

Bondoc pointed out that the C5 corridor will deliver a fresh supply of units at 33 percent share with upcoming projects such as Gem Residences (SMDC), Cirrus Residences (RLC Residences), Hotel 101 Bridgetowne (DoubleDragon Corporation), Arcovia Palazzo (Megaworld), and Parklinks North Tower (Ayala Land and Eton Properties). The Bay Area comes second at 27 percent, followed by the Ortigas Center at 21 percent. He also added that projects in the C5 corridor are relatively cheaper compared to those in Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center, but they are marketed well, thus providing upscale and premium amenities, resulting in a strong take-up.

The influx of premium residential projects will continue in 2026, specifically Parkford Suites by Alveo Land and Eluria by Arthaland in Makati CBD, and Aurelia Residences by RLC Residences and Shang Properties in Fort Bonifacio. For the year, the turnover of luxury projects is expected to be 22 percent.

In 2027, the turnover of luxury projects is expected to increase by 62 percent. Luxury condos in completion will include The Estate by SMDC and Federal Land in Makati, Seasons Residences by Federal Land and Nomura in Fort Bonifacio, Two Botanika Nature Residences by Filigree, and 1001 Parkway Residences in Alabang.

The overall Metro Manila vacancy as of end-2025 is at the average of 24.7 percent and is projected to slightly increase to 25 percent by the end of the year. In primary business districts, such as Makati CBD, Ortigas Center, and Fort Bonifacio, vacancy levels will remain low, from six to 20 percent, in the first quarter of the year.

For Bondoc, “Overall, this is a very good indicator, especially for the more established business hubs. But what stands out is that while the vacancy rate across the capital region is almost at 25 percent, the vacancy rates differ across the capital region. There are submarkets that are performing much better. Unfortunately, some locations aren’t doing so well; one of those is the Bay Area.”

For 2026, Bondoc forecasted that the Bay Area’s vacancy would have no significant improvement. “We believe that the Bay Area will likely end the year with a vacancy of about 57.4 percent, compared to the 57.3 percent vacancy recorded last year.”

Compared to 2024 year-on-year figures, the pre-selling launches of condominiums increased by 12 percent, while the take-up increased as well at 8 percent. However, these figures are lower than those recorded from 2017 to 2019, at the height of the POGO operations in the capital region.

From the 10,000 net take-up of condos in 2025, around 6,100 units were sold from pre-selling, while the rest were ready for occupancy (RFO) units. These are units from the affordable to lower mid-income segments that sell from P2.5 to about P7 million per unit. Locations with the highest pre-selling take-up include Manila with 19 percent, Alabang-Las Pinas with 14 percent, and Quezon City and Makati fringe with 10 percent share. For RFOs, Pasig City, at 25 percent, leads the market, followed by Manila with 22 percent and Cubao-New Manila with 12 percent, primarily from the affordable to lower minimum market that sells P2.5 to P7 million per unit.

Bondoc noted that the positive take-up in the condo sector in Metro Manila was brought about by aggressive marketing campaigns. “Developers have been offering all these innovative, creative payment terms, extended down payments, and payment terms that essentially transform the renter to buyer after three years,” he explained.

In 2025, most of the take-up transactions were in the lower mid-income market at 70 percent, a significant increase from the 30 percent share in 2024. Most of these launches were from the upper mid-income range that ranges from P7 million to P11.99 million per unit. One of the recently launched projects is the Heights Katipunan by Avida Land, which has 350 units and a contract price of P7 million.

Backouts were from the lower mid-income market, followed by the upper mid-income market. Based on annual figures, there is a drop in backouts from 4,300 in the last quarter of 2024 to 3,200 in the same period last year.

Unsold RFO units are mostly found in the lower mid-income market at 36 percent, followed by the affordable market at 33 percent and the upper mid-income segment at 14 percent. Submarkets Makati, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center only account for less than two percent of the unsold RFO units in Metro Manila.