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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Fuel prices set for fourth weekly hike

Fuel prices set for fourth weekly hike

Published Jan 30, 2026 09:02 am
Oil prices are poised for another increase next week, extending a month-long climb as global supply disruptions and geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions outweigh earlier projections of a market surplus.
Based on the four-day trading average of the Mean of Platts Singapore, the regional benchmark for refined products, gasoline prices are expected to rise by ₱0.50 to ₱0.70 per liter. Diesel, meanwhile, is projected to see a steeper increase of between ₱1.30 and ₱1.50 per liter. Kerosene, widely used in households and for aviation, is also expected to increase by approximately ₱0.45 per liter.
The Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau noted that global oil prices rallied for three consecutive sessions between Jan. 27 and Jan. 29. 
The primary driver for the surge was a severe winter storm in the United States (US), which disrupted production and logistics.
The extreme weather caused a temporary shutdown of approximately two million barrels per day, tightening immediate global availability.
Beyond the weather-related shocks in North America, tensions in Central Asia and the Middle East continue to inject a risk premium into the market.
Rodela Romero, Director of the OIMB, noted that several factors contribute to the upward pressure, including the sluggish recovery of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field following a fire and subsequent power issues.
The market is also monitoring a rising risk premium associated with Iran and the decision by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC+) to maintain its current output levels rather than proceeding with previously planned hikes.
The OPEC and its allies chose to pause monthly production increases through March, citing a cautious outlook on global demand. However, supply-side constraints remain the dominant narrative.
Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas said that the European Union’s ongoing ban on refined products from Russian crude is further complicating the outlook for middle distillates, including diesel.
Local oil companies typically finalize and announce price adjustments on Monday morning, with the new rates taking effect early Tuesday.
The upcoming round would mark the fourth consecutive week of increases for gasoline and the fifth for diesel and kerosene since the start of the year.
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