Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Philippine economic growth to accelerate to six percent by 2027, driven by projected recovery in capital outlays and uptick in government spending on major infrastructure projects.

Andrew Jeffries, ADB country director for the Philippines, said the economy is entering a transition phase, with gradual quarterly improvements throughout 2026 providing momentum for a stronger 2027.

Jeffries described a trajectory where a slower start to the year eventually gives way to a faster pace of expansion by the fourth quarter.

The Philippines has remained more resilient to global trade volatility than its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Jeffries said.

With domestic consumption accounting for roughly 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the country is less exposed to the immediate shocks of international trade tensions. However, this lack of export depth also limits the country’s growth potential during global upswings.

Jeffries noted that while the economy was shielded from 2025’s trade volatility, increasing the export sector’s contribution is essential for long-term stability and competitiveness.

The multilateral lender is currently finalizing its 2026 lending pipeline in coordination with the Department of Finance and the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development.

The ADB is also preparing approximately ₱236 billion, or $4 billion, in low-interest official development assistance for the year. This funding is earmarked for priority national projects, including health, education, and large-scale transport initiatives like the Bataan-Cavite Interlink Bridge and the North-South Commuter Rail.

Beyond sovereign lending, the ADB is also maintaining its private-sector operations, which provide commercial loans directly to companies.

The 2026 program will include a mix of new initiatives and continued financing for multiyear “mega-projects” that are being funded in phases.

The bank is scheduled to release its flagship 2026 Asian Development Outlook in April, which will provide updated growth and inflation forecasts for the region.

In the meantime, the ADB’s strategy remains focused on supporting the government’s implementation of existing infrastructure programs and addressing logistical hurdles inherent in the country’s archipelagic geography, which often drives up connectivity costs relative to regional peers.