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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Economy devider Diesel price hike of ₱1.40 per liter coming next week

Diesel price hike of ₱1.40 per liter coming next week

Published Jan 23, 2026 09:06 am  |  Updated Jan 23, 2026 01:57 pm
Oil prices are poised for another round of increases in the final week of January as supply constraints in Central Asia and brightening economic outlook in China tighten global markets.
Based on the first four days of trading for the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the benchmark for refined products in Southeast Asia, industry estimates suggested gasoline prices may climb between ₱0.30 and ₱0.50 per liter.
Diesel, meanwhile, is expected to see a more substantial hike of ₱1.20 to ₱1.40 per liter, while kerosene prices are projected to rise by approximately ₱0.45 per liter.
The upward trajectory is being driven by logistical bottlenecks and production halts in key oil-producing regions.
“Worries of tightening near-term supply due to the temporary halting of production at two large oilfields in Kazakhstan and export constraints in the Black Sea are supporting the upward pressure on oil prices this week,” Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas noted.
These disruptions have amplified concerns over near-term supply availability, providing a floor for prices even as broader market volatility persists.
Demand-side pressure is also mounting as stronger-than-expected economic data from China has bolstered market sentiment, and the International Monetary Fund’s upward revision of its 2026 economic outlook.
While these factors exert upward pressure on crude, the impact on gasoline remains somewhat tempered. Analysts suggested that ample regional supply ahead of the Lunar New Year season may prevent gasoline prices from spiking as sharply as middle distillates like diesel.
The geopolitical landscape remains a primary driver of price fluctuations. According to Bellas, oil prices have remained volatile despite a slight easing of immediate fears regarding Middle Eastern supply.
However, the market continues to monitor the potential for military intervention in Iran, which keeps a significant risk premium baked into global benchmarks.
Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, also attributed the current price movements to geopolitical tensions.
Specifically, Romero pointed to emerging frictions between the United States and the European Union regarding interests in Greenland as a contributing factor to the uncertainty in global energy trade.
The looming price hikes follow the upward adjustment this week, when gasoline rose by ₱1 per liter, diesel by ₱2 per liter, and kerosene by ₱1.5 per liter.
Local oil companies typically announce final price adjustments every Monday, with the changes taking effect the following morning.
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