More than half of global chief economists expect the world economy to weaken in 2026, citing rising debt, rapid artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, and shifting trade dynamics, according to Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF).

WEF’s Chief Economists’ Outlook, released Friday, Jan. 16, showed that 53 percent of economists surveyed anticipate weaker global economic conditions over the next year, down from 72 percent in September 2025.

While the outlook has improved modestly, uncertainty remains amid high asset valuations, mounting debt, geoeconomic realignments, and the rapid deployment of AI, which presents both opportunities and risks.

“The Chief Economists survey reveals three defining trends for 2026: surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies; and trade realignments,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi.

“Governments and companies will have to navigate an uncertain near-term environment with agility while continuing to build resilience and invest in the long-term fundamentals of growth,” Zahidi added.

The report highlighted divided views on AI’s impact. Fifty-two percent of economists expect United States (US) AI-related stocks to fall in the next year, while 40 percent foresee gains, warning that a sharp drop could ripple across the global economy. It added that cryptocurrencies face a bleaker outlook, and 54 percent believe gold has peaked after recent rallies.

AI’s effects are expected to vary by region and sector, the report added. Around 80 percent of economists anticipate productivity gains in the US and China within two years, with information technology (IT) adopting AI the fastest, followed by financial services, supply chains, healthcare, engineering, and retail. Larger companies—those with more than 1,000 employees—are expected to benefit sooner, with 77 percent forecasting meaningful gains within two years.

“The employment picture in relation to AI is expected to evolve over time: two-thirds expect modest job losses over the next two years, but views diverge sharply over the longer term: 57 percent anticipate net losses over 10 years, while 32 percent foresee gains as new occupations emerge,” the report said.

Debt remains a key concern for policymakers, the report stressed. Defense spending is expected to increase, with 97 percent of economists anticipating rises in advanced economies and 74 percent in emerging markets. Digital infrastructure and energy budgets are also set to grow, while environmental protection spending is likely to decline.

It added that views on sovereign debt crises are split. Nearly half expect crises in emerging markets, while only a small fraction foresee them in advanced economies. Over the next five years, 53 percent expect debt restructuring or default in emerging markets, compared with just six percent in advanced economies. Most economists predict governments will use higher inflation to ease debt burdens, with tax hikes expected in some regions.

Meanwhile, the report emphasized that global trade is adjusting to a more competitive landscape. Chief economists predict that US-China import tariffs will remain largely stable, while 91 percent expect US tech export restrictions and 84 percent foresee Chinese critical mineral limits to remain or tighten.

It added that bilateral trade deals are expected to increase (94 percent), and 69 percent anticipate growth in regional agreements. Chinese exports to non-US markets are projected to rise, while 57 percent foresee higher foreign direct investment (FDI) into the US, compared with just nine percent for China.

The report concluded that South Asia leads global growth expectations, with 66 percent of economists predicting strong performance, largely driven by India. East Asia and the Pacific are expected to see moderate to strong growth. The US outlook has improved, with 69 percent anticipating moderate growth, while China faces mixed prospects. Europe shows the weakest outlook, with a majority expecting weak growth.