Fuel prices are poised for a hefty jump next week as escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the Black Sea outweigh a potential global supply glut.

Based on the four-day trading data from the Mean of Platts Singapore, gasoline prices may rise by ₱1 to ₱1.20 per liter, while diesel is projected to spike by ₱1.80 to ₱2 per liter. Kerosene is also expected to increase by approximately ₱1 per liter.

The potential adjustments follow a volatile week where supply disruption fears took center stage.

The rally is being driven by civil unrest in Iran, the fourth-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Demonstrations against the country’s clerical system have sparked concerns over the stability of its output, which accounts for roughly four percent of global demand.

Any sustained loss of Iranian exports would tighten markets across Asia, particularly in China, which remains the primary buyer of the Islamic Republic’s crude.

“Crude oil and finished petroleum products had a short-lived upswing this week driven primarily by fears of an escalation in tension in Iran,” said Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau.

Market participants are also monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit.

Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, said that despite a looming supply surplus, the threat of United States (US) intervention in support of Iranian protesters has raised the risk of the conflict spreading and threatening flows through the waterway.

Further pressure emerged from the Black Sea, where drone attacks on two Western-operated oil tankers added to the geopolitical premium. The incident has intensified worries that regional conflicts are expanding to hit vital energy infrastructure far beyond the Persian Gulf.

Domestic factors are exacerbating the impact of rising global benchmarks. The Philippine peso recently hit a record low of ₱59.46 against the US dollar, adding an estimated ₱0.10 to ₱0.50 per liter to the projected price hikes.

To be sure, some factors could limit the scale of the increases. The U.S. recently reported a larger-than-expected build in oil and fuel inventories, and the potential for steady supply from Venezuela may provide a buffer. However, these factors have yet to offset the risk premium currently baked into regional prices.