Global leaders warn of turbulence ahead: half expect a stormy world over the next two years, with geoeconomic confrontation emerging as the top risk in 2026 to 2028, the Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF) says.

WEF’s Global Risks Report 2026, released Wednesday, Jan. 14, showed that half of global leaders and experts anticipate a turbulent world over the next two years — a 14-point jump from last year. Another 40 percent expect at least an unsettled environment, while only nine percent foresee stability, and one percent predict calm.

Looking ahead to the next decade, 57 percent expect turbulence, 32 percent anticipate an unsettled world, 10 percent foresee stability, and just one percent predict calm.

In the short term, geoeconomic confrontation tops near-term risks, with 18 percent of respondents citing it as the most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026 and ranking it the most severe risk over the next two years. State-based armed conflict ranks second in 2026 but falls to fifth in the two-year outlook.

“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” said WEF President and CEO Børge Brende.

“Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them,” he added.

Economic risks are also rising sharply in the two-year outlook. The report highlights concerns over economic downturns, inflation, and asset bubbles. “Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility,” the report said.

Technology and societal risks are also climbing, the report said. Misinformation and disinformation ranks second for the two-year outlook, cyber insecurity sixth, and adverse Artificial Intelligence (AI) impacts jump to fifth over a 10-year horizon, from 30th in two-year view. Societal polarization ranks fourth in 2026 and third by 2028, while inequality remains a key interconnected, ranking seventh in both the two- and 10-year outlooks.

The report also noted that environmental risks have declined in short-term rankings but remain severe over the next decade. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are the top long-term environmental concerns, with 75 percent of respondents expecting turbulence.

“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi.

“The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next,” Zahidi added.