Oil prices are poised to resume their upward trajectory next week as escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Eastern Europe offsets domestic hopes for a price rollback.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. warned that gasoline and diesel costs are facing renewed pressure after a period of relative stability, ending the prospect of the year’s first significant price reduction.

Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, said on Saturday, Jan. 10, that supply disruptions involving major producers Russia and Iran are the primary catalysts for the anticipated adjustments.

Market sentiment shifted sharply during the final trading sessions of the week on Friday, as investors weighed the impact of civil unrest in Tehran and intensified combat in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Internal estimates suggested gasoline prices may now rise between ₱0.10 and ₱0.30 per liter. Diesel also is expected to either remain steady or increase by as much as ₱0.20 per liter.

The projections follow a week where global crude benchmarks reacted to the possibility of a total halt in Iranian oil exports and further constraints on Russian shipments.

“Concerns over the potential halting of Iran's oil export due to civil unrest, disruption of Russian oil exports as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates, and uncertainty of supply from Venezuela have pushed oil and refined fuel products prices higher,” Bellas said.

The market outlook is further complicated by data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. A recent survey indicated that OPEC+ output fell last month, largely due to involuntary production drops in Iran and Venezuela.

While global oil inventories remain at levels that analysts describe as bearish, which may cap the ceiling of next week's hike, the broader trend remains skewed toward volatility.

Traders are also monitoring Washington’s next moves regarding Venezuela. The US is scheduled to discuss new export deals as part of a broader plan to stabilize and potentially oversee the South American nation's oil infrastructure.

The volatility in liquid fuels coincides with a mixed bag for the country’s growing electric vehicle sector. Data for the current week show alternating current charging fees rose slightly by ₱0.10 to ₱24.21 per kilowatt-hour. Conversely, direct current fast-charging rates saw a sharp decline, falling ₱4.12 to ₱29.69 per kilowatt-hour.

Battery swapping prices for electric two-wheelers held firm at ₱53.46 per kilowatt-hour. The Department of Energy currently tracks 1,344 active charging stations nationwide as part of the government’s push for energy diversification.