2026's first oil price roll back likely next week
Fuel prices are likely to post this year’s first price cuts next week due to expectations of a bearish supply outlook in the global market alongside drop in demand.
Based on the four-day trading average at Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), gasoline is likely to remain at its current price point or decrease by ₱0.20 per liter, while diesel may drop somewhere between ₱0.10 and ₱0.30 per liter.
Kerosene is also projected to drop by more or less ₱0.25 per liter next week.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Venezuela, analysts from the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau (DOE-OIMB) and Jetti Petroleum expect Venezuelan oil output to increase.
“Oil prices edged lower this week as markets weighed the possibility of higher Venezuelan crude output, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply amid weak demand,” said Rodela Romero, DOE-OIMB director.
After the US captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Washington is expected to control the sale of oil produced in Venezuela, which it earlier sanctioned to ease global market restrictions.
According to a recent report from US officials, initial Venezuelan oil sales are projected to average around 30 million to 50 million barrels, with their revenues said to be US government-controlled in the meantime.
“Likewise, traders monitor Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) policy signals and any attempts to bolster the market,” Romero said.
According to a recent Bloomberg survey, OPEC has pumped an average of around 29 million barrels per day (bpd), with Venezuelan production dropping 14 percent to 830,000 bpd due to seized tanks and conflict with the US.
Despite this, crude production among oil-exporting nations remained steady last month.
Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas cautioned, however, that any deterioration in geopolitical or policy conditions could swiftly flip the market’s supply outlook.
“Further worsening of geopolitical and policy developments can swiftly overturn the bearish market sentiment and push prices to the upside, potentially reducing or wiping out the potential rollback on domestic prices next week,” he added.