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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Banking & Finance devider Peso nears historic low; analysts eye ₱60 as Venezuelan tensions mount

Peso nears historic low; analysts eye ₱60 as Venezuelan tensions mount

Published Jan 6, 2026 04:51 pm

At A Glance

  • The Philippine peso plunged to near another historic low, closing at ₱59.21 against the United States (US) dollar—just shy of the record ₱59.22 per dollar logged in December 2025.
The peso slumped to within a whisker of its record low on Tuesday, Jan. 6, as escalating geopolitical tensions in South America fueled a rally in oil prices and drove demand for the greenback.
The local currency weakened to ₱59.21 per dollar, according to data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines. The close was just one centavo shy of the all-time low of ₱59.22 reached in December 2025.
The peso opened at ₱59.07 and traded entirely in the red, hitting an intraday low that matched its closing price. Trading activity intensified during the session, with volume surging to $1.386 billion from $929 million on Monday.
The decline marks the third consecutive day of losses for the peso, which has come under renewed pressure following a flare-up in global energy markets.
Crude oil prices climbed toward one-month highs after United States President Donald Trump ordered the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an escalation that has rattled commodity traders and soured sentiment toward emerging market assets.
While the peso had previously shown signs of stabilization, the combination of higher import costs for fuel and a narrowing interest-rate differential is testing the currency's floor.
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., noted that the spike in crude remains a primary headwind for the net oil-importing nation.
Moreover, policy signals from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) have added another layer of complexity for the currency. 
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. indicated that while a 25-basis-point interest rate cut remains a technical possibility for the February policy meeting, such a move is currently considered unlikely.
The central bank is navigating a delicate balancing act after December inflation settled at 1.8 percent, a print that came in higher than some analysts expected but remains well within the official target range.
The BSP has historically intervened in the foreign-exchange market to smooth out volatility and prevent the peso from breaching psychological thresholds.
However, the persistent strength of the US dollar, bolstered by safe-haven flows and a hawkish outlook for American interest rates, continues to limit the efficacy of local policy shifts.
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