The Washington-based multilateral lender International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more optimistic than President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s economic team on the government’s revenue effort, as it sees higher revenues accounting for a larger share of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.

Based on the IMF’s medium-term forecast, the share of the national government’s (NG) revenues relative to output is seen hitting 16.1 percent in 2025, higher than the updated projection of the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

Programmed revenues for 2025 were set at ₱4.52 trillion, equivalent to 15.9 percent of last year’s GDP valued at ₱28.36 trillion.

Notably, the IMF’s forecasts for both 2026 and 2028 match those of the DBCC, with both expecting the revenue-to-GDP ratio to stand at 16.2 percent and 16.3 percent, respectively.

For 2027, meanwhile, the government expects a lower ratio of 16 percent, compared with the IMF’s 16.2 percent.

While both the DBCC and the IMF agree on a higher revenue effort by the end of the Marcos Jr. administration in 2028, the projected ratio would still fall short of the all-time high of 16.7 percent in 2024. The government expects lower ratios until 2030, when revenues are seen accounting for 16.8 percent of GDP valued at ₱42.58 trillion.

The IMF’s rosier outlook hinges on the stable expansion of non-tax revenues, as it sees their share of GDP steadying at 1.4 percent from 2025 through 2028. In contrast, the DBCC expects a lower 1.1 percent in both 2025 and 2026, and 0.8 percent in both 2027 and 2028.

Meanwhile, the IMF’s forecast for tax revenues stands lower than the DBCC’s through the end of the Marcos administration’s term. The IMF expects tax revenues to be equivalent to 14.7 percent of GDP in 2025, versus the DBCC’s 14.9 percent.

By 2028, tax revenues are seen taking up 15.5 percent of the country’s output under the DBCC projection, while the 15-percent threshold is only breached based on the IMF’s forecast.

From January to November last year, overall revenues have inched up 1.1 percent to ₱4.15 trillion from ₱4.1 trillion in the same 11-month period in 2024. Tax collections accounted for the lion’s share of the January-to-November 2025 total.

Of total tax receipts, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR)—the country’s main tax collection agency—contributed 76.5 percent, or ₱2.91 trillion, up 8.9 percent from ₱2.67 trillion in 2024.

This performance lifted year-to-date growth even as non-tax revenues shrank by 36.9 percent to ₱350.6 billion from ₱555.2 billion in 2024.

Separately, the Bureau of Customs (BOC), the country’s second-largest tax collection agency, collected ₱859.5 billion as of end-November 2025, exceeding the ₱850 billion raised in the same period in 2024.