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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Banking & Finance devider Donald Trump's Venezuela attack: A surprise win for Philippine peso?

Donald Trump's Venezuela attack: A surprise win for Philippine peso?

Published Jan 5, 2026 12:51 pm  |  Updated Jan 5, 2026 01:01 pm
Japanese financial giant MUFG Bank, Ltd. said the Philippine peso may gain from the massive offensive the United States (US) launched against Venezuela, as oil prices may drop over time due to oversupply.
MUFG Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan said in a Jan. 5 commentary that the US attack on the oil-rich country could initially push oil prices lower, a development deemed slightly beneficial for “oil importers in Asia,” including the Philippine peso, the South Korean won, the Thai baht, and the Indian rupee.
“With oil markets already expected to be in a meaningful surplus in 2026, this could add further pressure for oil prices to head lower, even as there is uncertainty around whether and how quickly Venezuela may be able to ramp up oil production and also regime stability,” Wan noted.
This New Year turmoil was ignited when Trump ordered an attack on Venezuela, which led to the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Trump also remarked that the US will initially run the country without a leader.
It appears that Trump’s move may not lead to regime change for now, as he seems to be backing Delcy Rodriguez, a close ally of Maduro, to serve as interim president rather than opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael Ricafort said it would be favorable for the Venezuelan and global economy if oil production improves under the US invasion.
Venezuela produces around 800,000 barrels of oil per day, equivalent to less than one percent of global oil output. It is also a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with “relatively large oil reserves.”
He added that global oil price movements linked to this escalating geopolitical tension could affect the Philippine economy, particularly inflation and oil import costs.
According to the economist, the US dollar edged higher against major global currencies, nearing one-month highs, as investors took a defensive stance amid geopolitical risks linked to Venezuela over the weekend.
As of Monday, Jan. 5, the peso reached its intraday low of ₱59.05 per US dollar, after opening at ₱58.888:$1.
According to the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP), this marks the local currency’s weakest level in three weeks since it plunged to a historic low in December 2025.
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