In Casino Royale (2006), one of the film's most gripping scenes unfolds as James Bond faces off against the antagonist Le Chiffre at a poker table, with tens of millions of dollars at stake. Bond finds himself at the final table in a high-stakes game where more than just chips are on the line—reputations are too. Four players remain, and the pot has swelled to a massive size.

The dealer lays down the fifth and final card, signaling the last round of betting. Tension escalates rapidly. The first player, seeing a strong flush, pushes all his chips in, adding $6 million to the pot.

Next to act is a player who has maintained a quiet demeanor throughout the game. He glances at his hand and, without hesitation, also goes all-in, contributing $5 million to the pot. He holds a full house—three eights and a pair of aces—a hand even stronger than the first player's.

Then it's Le Chiffre's turn, the movie's villain. With icy composure, he raises the bet to $12 million. His hand? Three aces and two sixes—even better.

Now, all eyes are on Bond. He pauses, his gaze flicking to his cards. His thoughts remain hidden. Then, in a sudden move, he declares himself all-in. Le Chiffre, convinced it's a bluff, calls. The betting concludes, and it's time for the showdown.

The first player reveals his Ace-high flush. The second player confidently displays his full house. Then, with calm assurance, Le Chiffre turns over his aces full of sixes. And finally, Bond reveals his cards—a seven and a five of spades—revealing a straight flush, an exceptionally rare hand that trumps all others.

A stunned silence falls over the table. Bond collects his winnings, generously tips the dealer $500,000, and walks away. It's a quintessential movie moment. However, here's a curious detail: while casual viewers might hail Bond as a genius for his win, most seasoned poker players would have steered clear of Bond's hand. A seven-five suited is typically folded nine times out of ten, especially against skilled adversaries like Le Chiffre. It's a weak hand with a high probability of losing. He simply got lucky.

A parallel situation often arises in the investing world. We observe individuals investing in highly speculative assets, witness their significant gains, and readily label them as geniuses. We form opinions about people's investment portfolios based on a narrow snapshot of a couple of years of performance, without considering how such a strategy might fare over a lifetime of investments.

Sound decisions can lead to losses, and conversely, poor decisions can sometimes result in wins. Beyond the realm of the natural sciences, most decisions operate within the realm of probability, not certainty. A singular outcome, whether positive or negative, doesn't provide the complete picture. Consequently, we must consider: What would be the outcome if I repeated this decision a thousand times under identical circumstances? As a compelling thought experiment, if you envisioned a multiverse where numerous James Bonds played that exact hand repeatedly, the majority of those Bonds would have likely lost. His victory stemmed from being in an exceptionally rare and favorable sequence of events.

Investing presents a challenging landscape because, more than many other fields, it is significantly influenced by luck—a factor particularly relevant in today's climate. With markets exhibiting extreme volatility, investors face considerable stress. Should you seize the opportunity to buy when prices dip? Should you liquidate your holdings into cash? Tariffs, inflation, wars, elections—the outcome of the next market move remains uncertain. Therefore, the prudent approach is to consistently make well-reasoned, rational decisions and accept the ensuing consequences. Ultimately, in the realm of investing, only your long-term performance will hold significance, irrespective of any unfavorable market conditions encountered along the way.

Outcomes are inherently unpredictable, but decisions lie within our control. And over the long haul, sound decisions tend to prevail.

So, if a reckless gamble happens to yield a positive result, avoid becoming overconfident. Future attempts might not be so fortunate. Conversely, if a well-considered investment takes a downturn, analyze it for potential learning opportunities to refine your future decisions, and be kind to yourself. You are navigating a landscape of randomness, and experiencing losses periodically is an inherent aspect of the process.

By focusing on the quality of your decisions rather than solely on the outcomes, you enhance the odds of long-term success.

Keith Lim is a personal finance writer and stock market investor. His insights can be found at keithblim.com.