Senatorial candidates Kiko Pangilinan’s and Bam Aquino’s “disciplined campaign” that focuses on their platforms seemed to be the right move as both have gained in the recent pre-election senatorial surveys amid the political noise brought by former president Rodrigo Duterte’s International Criminal Court arrest, a political analyst said on Saturday, April 12.

Former vice president Leni Robredo raises the hands of senatorial candidates Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan during a campaign rally at the Iloilo Sports Complex on March 6, 2025. (Bam Aquino Media Bureau)

Arjan Aguirre, assistant professor of the Political Science Department at the Ateneo de Manila University, noted the uptick in both Pangilinan’s and Aquino’s survey rankings.

“And it seems that the independent candidates--especially Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan--are benefiting from this given that they chose to have a disciplined campaign--focusing on their campaign issues (education crisis and food crisis), visiting areas and places that seem to be affected by their issues, etc.,” he said in an analysis of the recent surveys.

“This is a huge push as they continue to consolidate the 'pink' voters who are still supporting Leni Robredo and her advocacies on good governance and progressive leadership,” he added.

The former vice president has endorsed and is actively campaigning for the candidacies of Pangilinan, her 2022 runningmate, and Aquino, her campaign manager in 2016 and 2022.

Both have abandoned their original plans to run as senators in the 2022 elections for Robredo.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey conducted from March 23 to 29, Aquino was ranked 12-18 (28.6 percent), while Pangilinan was at 14-18 (26.8 percent).

The OCTA Research survey conducted from March 18 to 24 placed Aquino at 12-18 (28 percent) and Pangilinan at 12-19 (27 percent).

The WRN Research conducted from March 31 to April 7 also placed the duo inside the Magic 12 at 12-13 rank, with Aquino getting 26.4 percent and Pangilinan 25.2 percent.

While Aquino and Pangilinan have made significant strides in their survey rankings, the same cannot be said for the administration’s senatorial bets.

“From what I see, it seems that the admin candidates are losing big numbers due to their inability to keep up with the noise and ruckus of the campaign,” Aguirre opined.

“These past weeks, changes in the position have been influenced by the ongoing squabbling and heightened tension brought by the ICC arrest of Duterte and the widespread mobilization of the Duterte camp to exploit this moment for the midterm elections,” he added.

With a month left before the May 12, 2025 midterm elections, the analyst explained that voters “are starting to make up their minds--fill-up rate going up--as we approach May 12.”

“The changes in points at this point are usually influenced by people who are making up their minds about who else to vote for aside from their initial choices,” Aguirre said, noting the “new” names in the list.

Rep. Rodante Marcoleta and actor Philip Salvador have entered the Magic 12 in the latest surveys.

“Their heavy online operations and salience effect brought by intense new coverage from the mainstream media have allowed new candidates from the Duterte camp to barge in--Salvador and Marcoleta,” he added.

Meanwhile, Aquino acknowledged the role of supporters and volunteers in the momentum his campaign gained.

“Tuwang-tuwa kami at nakapasok na tayo sa Top 12. Pero alam niyo po, nakikita po namin on the ground, ang daming gumagalaw, ang daming volunteers, especially iyong mga kabataan (We are happy that we finally got inside the Top 12. But you know, we see on the ground, a lot are campaigning, there are a lot of volunteers, especially the youth),” he said.

“Sabi ko sa kanila, habang gumagalaw sila, mas tataas pa iyan. Kaya (I told them that as long as you’re campaigning, that rank will go higher. That’s why) we're very happy with these results,” the former senator, who is advocating for free education and guaranteed jobs, added.

Pangilinan, for his part, admitted that more work needs to be done in the remaining days of the campaign.

“We have 32 days to go until the end we have to keep pushing kasi nga tuwing tumataas tayo sa survey ay tumataas din yung bayarang trolls kaya kailangan talagang (because when we gain in the survey, more paid trolls are also coming out so), we have to keep at it, convince and convince,” he said during a campaign in Cebu City last April 10.

The former senator, who is running on the platform of food security and lower prices of food, expressed optimism that more Filipinos will be convinced to vote for him once they learn of his track record and advocacies.