The stock market is seen to remain volatile amid uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, as their impact may affect policy moves by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed unanimously voted to keep rates unchanged at 4.5 percent for the second straight meeting of 2025, citing short-run inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty. However, it was quick to assure markets that it would stick to its pre-announced one to two rate cuts before year-end and slow quantitative tightening by April.

“These events are not unexpected given the more complex factors into the inflation model since the installment of Trump last January. Interestingly, President Trump sub-tweeted at the Fed calling for more aggressive dovish action vis-à-vis new tariffs in effect by April.

“While we do not expect this to substantially change the Fed’s stance (the cuts will come at the back half of 2025, as planned), expect volatility in this space to be the new baseline as growth concerns now spillover to politico-economic rhetoric, at least in the US,” said 2TradeAsia.com.

It noted that, “As the previous Trump administration in 2017 to 2021 showed, markets are extremely sensitive to the predictability and independence of Fed policy.”

Meanwhile, at the local front, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) recently revised its gross domestic product (GDP) outlook, and 2025 to 2026 growth is expected to settle near the lower end of the six- to eight-percent target.

“We maintain that this growth remains above average regionally, but it does signal some form of reality check amid heightened uncertainties (mentioned in our past notes—erosion in recent fundamentals is not totally structural).

“A potential early April cut is being floated, making March inflation (to be reported on April 4) even more important as a potential indicator,” it added.

The brokerage cautioned investors that preemptive pricing of an April cut “can be immature as interim data can still alter the BSP’s stance; additionally, an early cut will put parity pressure on the peso. Circumstances remain extremely fluid, and extra vigilance is warranted given event risks in early-mid April.”

For stock picks, Abacus Securities Corp. has a BUY rating for Ayala Corp. (AC) after noting that the drag from its smaller units “should lessen in a more palpable way for AC’s bottom line starting this year. This adds to our case for AC as one to Buy and Hold as we believe it will trade at much higher levels in one to two years.”

Meanwhile, Unicapital Securities Research Analyst Jeri R. Alfonso said they have a BUY rating for Universal Robina Corp. (URC) because, “We believe the company can meet its mid-single-digit bottom line growth guidance for 2025, supported by election-driven demand, easing inflation, and the clearance of high-cost sugar inventories.”

Meanwhile, Unicapital Analyst Peter Louise D. Garnace is betting on Apex Mining Co. Inc. after adjusting targets for the company due to higher gold price assumptions, resulting in an average of 18 percent increase in their earnings per share forecast.