Here is an interesting Qsearch report that tracked the social media sentiments around ex-President Duterte’s arrest. This QSearch report was gathered from publicly available social data from Meta platforms using official APIs, not by scraping web pages.
Massive Surge in Engagement for March 2025
Big data analytics reveals a dramatic spike in online discussions about “Duterte” in March 2025. Social media interactions skyrocketed to 65 million, a sharp increase from 21 million in February and 5 million in January. This represents a more than twelvefold surge within just two months, indicating a major event that has captured public attention. (Hint: ICC arrest)
Dominance of Positive and Humorous Reactions
Analyzing engagement trends, over 85% of interactions express positive or humorous sentiments. The most common reactions are:
- Like: 31 million (35%)
- Love: 18 million (20%)
- Haha: 28 million (31%)
This pattern suggests that most social media users perceive the content around “Duterte” in a favorable or lighthearted manner, highlighting the role of sentiment analysis in understanding public opinion.
Presence of Negative Sentiment and Polarization
Despite the overall positive engagement, data analytics also detects significant negative sentiment:
- Angry: 7 million (7.78%)
- Sad: 5 million (6.20%)
This polarization highlights a divided public response, demonstrating how big data can uncover diverse opinions and gauge societal reactions.
The Halo Effect: Political Implications of Public Engagement
The surge in engagement may have real-world electoral consequences. A “halo effect” could benefit pro-Duterte candidates in the May 2025 midterm elections, as increased visibility and sentiment transfer influence voter behavior.
Key Insights from Big Data Analysis:
- Increased Visibility and Favorability
- The spike in engagement (66.37 million interactions) reflects strong public interest.
- High levels of “Like” (34.41%) and “Haha” (30.90%) reactions suggest Duterte’s enduring popularity.
- This positive perception may extend to candidates affiliated with him, boosting their electoral prospects.
2. Electoral Boost for Pro-Duterte Candidates According to another report, this time from Tangere’s 2025 Pre-Election Senatorial Survey that was also conducted around Duterte’s arrest, notable gains were observed among PDP-Laban candidates:
- Senator Bong Go: 51.25% → 54.00% (Ranks 1–3)
- Senator Bato Dela Rosa: 36.54% → 37.29% (Ranks 7–13)
- Actor Philip Salvador: 21.92% → 22.67% (Ranks 19–20)
- Cong. Rodante Marcoleta: 19.12% → 19.83% (Ranks 21–23)
- Atty. Jimmy Bondoc: 17.63% → 18.13% (Ranks 21–23)
- Atty. Vic Rodriguez: 6.63% → 10.42% (Ranks 26–27)
Additionally, 85% of respondents in Tangere’s survey confirmed that recent events would influence their voting decisions. However, Roger Do, AutoPolitic cautions that this effect may not hold for long:
“The initial surge in engagement was merely a reaction to the shock of the arrest, and it is already fading.
The key driver of public interest appears to be the perception that he was previously untouchable. The conversation has shifted towards sovereignty and legal processes, demonstrating how different crisis generate different grades of justification from their campaign, and how the public reacts to them”
3. Polarization and Mobilization Potential
- While positive reactions dominate, negative sentiment (“Angry” at 7.78% and “Sad” at 6.20%) indicates a divided audience.
- This polarization could energize both supporters and detractors, leading to increased voter turnout.
- Pro-Duterte candidates might benefit from the mobilization of his loyal base, particularly in strongholds.
Historical Influence of Duterte’s Endorsements
- Past elections demonstrate Duterte’s power in shaping voter preferences.
- In 2022, his support was a major factor in Bongbong Marcos’ victory.
- Current trends suggest that candidates aligned with Duterte may again see an advantage due to name recall and public sentiment.
The Power of Data Analytics in Political Analysis
The unprecedented surge in social media engagement surrounding ex-President Duterte’s arrest highlights the power of big data in understanding public sentiment and its potential political consequences.
In this era where online sentiment can drive real-world political outcomes, understanding and leveraging big data is no longer an option — it’s a necessity.