It has been nearly three months since the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) responded to the explosive eruption of the Kanlaon Volcano and the future appears bleak for affected residents, with thousands of them still in evacuation centers, relying on government assistance to survive daily, and many children’s education suffering as schools were turned into evacuation centers.
Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno, OCD administrator, said 8,596 individuals or 2,686 families from Western Visayas (Region 6) Central Visayas (Region 7) were staying in 22 evacuation centers as of Sunday, March 2.
“It has been three months since we started operating there,” Nepomuceno said in a radio interview over dzBB, recalling the first time the OCD responded following the Dec. 9, 2024 explosive eruption of Kanlaon Volcano.
"Right now, Kanlaon is still under Alert Level 3 which means there is a prohibition of any activities within the six-kilometer [permanent danger zone]. Many are still inside evacuation centers. And many evacuation centers are actually schools,” he added.
Nepomuceno said the situation remains unpredictable, that’s why they still could not allow residents to go back to their houses, leading some of them to experience stress, fatigue, and frustration.
“We cannot control the volcano and we cannot say when it will erupt. When this situation began, more or less the magma was 20 kilometers from the volcano’s crater. Two weeks ago, the magma was only five meters from the mouth of the volcano. This means it could erupt any moment now, or it could still take months. Nobody knows and it's really hard,” he explained.
He said many students were affected by the situation as some of the evacuees were children.
“They were affected, the children who could not go to school because of the eruption. Aside from the evacuees, the situation also affects students who are studying in schools that were turned into temporary shelters. The DepEd [Department of Education] was conducting remedial classes to address learning deficiencies. What’s important here is to maintain the habit of children going to classes. It would be difficult if they get used to skipping classes. Three months is a very long time,” Nepomuceno noted.
Worst case scenario
Meanwhile, the OCD will meet President Marcos Jr. on Monday, March 3, to present their recommendations amid the restiveness of Kanlaon Volcano.
Marcos ordered the creation of a “National Task force for Kanlaon” which will craft long-term solutions and redevelopment plans for the affected residents.
Nepomuceno said the OCD will head the national task force, and will include relevant government agencies such as the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Presidential Communications Office (PCO), Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Philippine National Police (PNP), and Philippine Coast Guard (PCG).
“The OCD is looking at three scenarios right now. The worst case is a violent eruption, that we are praying would not occur. It’s likely to happen if the pressure underneath would be too much, and the magma will be spewed by the volcano violently. That would be too dangerous,” Nepomuceno said.
If that happens, the alert level of Kanlaon Volcano would be elevated to Level 4, which would involve the mandatory evacuation of 90,000 people living within the danger zone, Nepomuceno said.
The second scenario would be a slow but prolonged eruption, like the 2023 eruption of Mayon Volcano which took six months.
The third scenario is if the magma at the crater of the volcano cools down and hardens.
“It’s like a delayed eruption. Time will come where it would erupt but we don’t know when,” Nepomuceno explained.
Asked if the OCD is ready for all three scenarios right now, Nepomuceno had a brutally honest answer.
“Maghahabol po tayo talaga, hindi natin pwede pagandahin ang sagot (We really need to catch up, we cannot sugarcoat our answer),” he said.
“We need the local government units to craft and iron out their evacuation plans. They need to identify how many people are going to evacuation centers, how many vehicles will be used to evacuate the people, what are the escape routes. Hopefully this week, we would be able to finish our preparations,” he stated.
With regards to funding, Nepomuceno said the OCD still has sufficient funds to sustain the needs of the evacuees. The problem, however, is that the agency is also thinking if their money would suffice for responding to potential calamities in the coming months.
The OCD has so far distributed P223 million worth of assistance to the affected residents in Regions 6 and 7.
“Right now, we still have sufficient funds but when July comes, we would have typhoons. I think it’s a good thing that we are not expecting El Niño but you know, we need to think of these things. We need to budget our funds really well,” he said.
“We are racing against time. We need to be prepared, get ahead of the eruption,” the OCD administrator added.