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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider 'Decaying' La Niña expected to transition to neutral conditions by mid-2025 — PAGASA

'Decaying' La Niña expected to transition to neutral conditions by mid-2025 — PAGASA

Published Mar 19, 2025 04:05 am
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Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) ENSO Alert and Warning System

The La Niña weather phenomenon, marked by cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is “decaying,” said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, March 19.

In a climate forum, PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said climate models suggest a shift to neutral conditions by mid-2025, indicating that the La Niña event is nearing its end. 

Solis noted that there is a 62-percent probability that neutral conditions will persist in June-July-August 2025.

In the Philippines, La Niña typically brings above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, stronger tropical cyclones, agricultural damage, and health issues like waterborne diseases.

As La Niña weakens, the country may see a return to more typical weather patterns, though some lingering impacts may remain.

Solis added that uncertainties remain regarding weather patterns after the June-July-August period.

“After the June-July-August 2025 seasos, doon po ‘yung nakikita nating whether kung may possibility na magkaroon ulit ng La Niña by end of this year or tuloy-tuloy na neutral condition (After the June-July-August 2025 season, we’ll be able to better assess whether there’s a possibility of La Niña occurring again by the end of this year or if the neutral conditions will continue),” she said.

Solis pointed out that historically, it is more common to see back-to-back La Niña events than a La Niña followed by an El Niño.

Based on PAGASA’s record, back-to-back La Niña events occurred in 2007 to 2008, 2008 to 2009, 2010 to 2011, 2011 to 2012, 2016 to 2017, and 2017 to 2018.

A rare triple-dip La Niña, which refers to three consecutive years of La Niña conditions, was observed from 2021 to 2023.

“Pero malayo pa po ‘yun (last quarter of 2025), mataas pa rin ang uncertainty (But that’s still far off, and there’s still high uncertainty),” she added.

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