No tropical cyclones are expected to develop in the country this week as the northeast monsoon (amihan) continues to bring cool winds and light rains to parts of Luzon, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Tuesday, Feb. 4.

“Makikita natin sa ating latest satellite images na wala tayong minomonitor na anumang low pressure area (We can see in our latest satellite images that we are not monitoring any low-pressure area),” PAGASA Weather Specialist Obet Badrina said. 

“Maliit pa rin ‘yung chance ang magkaroon tayo ng bagyo sa araw na ito at sa mga susunod pa this week (The chance of a typhoon forming today and in the coming week remains low).”

While storm formation remains unlikely, the state weather bureau said the northeast monsoon will continue to affect northern and central Luzon, bringing cloudy skies and light rains, particularly in Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Aurora, and Quezon.

Meanwhile, it noted that the easterlies—warm winds from the Pacific Ocean—will bring increased chances of rain over eastern Mindanao, particularly in Surigao del Sur, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental.

“Patuloy pa rin ‘yung pag-iral ng northeast monsoon o hanging amihan, particular na sa may hilaga at gitnang Luzon. At ito ang magdadala ng mga mahihinang pag-ulan, partikular na sa malaking bahagi ng Cagayan Valley, gayon din sa may area ng Cordillera (The northeast monsoon or hanging amihan continues to prevail, particularly over Northern and Central Luzon. This will bring light rains, especially over most parts of Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera region),” Badrina explained.

For the rest of the country, including Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA said generally fair weather is expected, although isolated rain showers and thunderstorms may still occur, especially in Visayas and Southern Luzon.

Rains expected towards weekend

The state weather bureau also warned that by Thursday and the weekend, both the northeast monsoon and easterlies will intensify, increasing the likelihood of moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Eastern Mindanao.

“Towards the end of the week, malaki ‘yung chance na maging maulan na naman sa malaking bahagi ng Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, at Eastern Mindanao (Towards the end of the week, there is a big chance of rainy weather returning to most parts of the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Eastern Mindanao),” Badrina stated.

Such, he said,  could also lead to the re-emergence of the shear line phenomenon, where cold amihan winds collide with warm easterlies, triggering continuous heavy rainfall in affected areas.

Gale warning

PAGASA also issued a gale warning due to strong amihan winds, making sea travel risky for small vessels in northern Luzon.

“Delikadong maglayag ang mga maliliit na sasakyang pandagat, lalong-lalo na po ‘yung mga maliliit na bangka sa mga baybayin ng Batanes, Cagayan (kasama ang Babuyan Islands), Ilocos Norte, at hilagang bahagi ng Ilocos Sur (It is dangerous for small sea vessels, especially small boats, to sail in the coastal waters of Batanes, Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Ilocos Norte, and the northern part of Ilocos Sur),” Badrina warned.

Fishers and boat operators in these areas are advised to avoid venturing into the sea until conditions improve, the agency said.