The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, Feb. 26 said most of the country may receive above normal rainfall in March, with 44 provinces likely to experience “way above normal” rainfall, attributed to the continuing effects of La Niña.
In February, 57 provinces experienced above normal rainfall, 18 had near-normal rainfall, and nine saw below normal rainfall.
PAGASA defines “way below normal” as rainfall less than 40 percent of the usual amount, “below normal” as 41 percent to 80 percent of the average, “near-normal” as 81 percent to 120 percent of usual rainfall, and “above-normal” to “way above normal” as more than 120 percent of the typical rainfall amount.
March rainfall
PAGASA Weather Specialist Joey Figuracion said that March will bring significantly more rainfall to a large portion of the country due to the ongoing La Niña condition.
He pointed out that most areas of the country will experience above to way above normal rainfall conditions. However, some western parts of the Ilocos Region are expected to have way below to below normal rainfall.
According to the forecast, 44 areas will likely experience "way above normal" rainfall, while 32 will see above normal rainfall, five will have near-normal rainfall, and three will face below normal rainfall conditions.
The areas expecting way above-normal rainfall include Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Sorsogon, Aklan, Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, Cebu, Biliran, Northern Samar, Samar, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Davao Occidental, South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Basilan, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.
While La Niña's effects will still cause above normal rainfall in many areas, the shift towards drier conditions will begin to take effect in some regions.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2025/2/26/pagasa-amihan-season-may-end-in-early-march
La Niña’s impact
As of Feb. 25, La Niña conditions continue to persist in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to last through April. A transition to an ENSO-neutral state, where neither La Niña nor El Niño persists, is likely to occur from March to May.
The rains will come from various weather systems, whose effects are exacerbated by the ongoing La Niña.
PAGASA explained that the La Niña conditions increase the likelihood of intense rainfall, which could lead to adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, flooding, flash floods, and landslides, particularly in vulnerable areas.
Rainfall trends
Meanwhile, Figuracion said that in April, while the trend will shift, above-to-normal rainfall conditions will still be present in various regions, with patches of drier conditions in Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.
No more areas are expected to experience way above normal rainfall in April.
However, 17 provinces are predicted to have above-normal rainfall, 60 provinces will see near-normal rainfall, and seven provinces will experience below-normal rainfall.
In May, near to above normal rainfall conditions are anticipated across most of the country, with 28 provinces expected to experience above normal rainfall and 58 provinces seeing near-normal conditions.
From June to August, PAGASA expects near to below normal rainfall across most areas.