It’s that time of the year when I do a little crystal ball-gazing, and offer up my predictions on the upcoming Academy Awards. As is my custom, I go through most of the Oscars that are up for grabs on the night and distinguish between Who Will Win and my personal take on Who Should Win. Then, let’s see come March 2 (morning of March 3, Manila time), how many I got right!
Best Picture:
Who Will Win - Anora
Who Should Win - Conclave
I actually loved both these films, but think Conclave is the one that years from now, will age better, like good wine.
Best Director:
Who Will Win - Sean Baker, Anora
Who Should Win - James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
I’ll be happy to watch Baker accept the statue, but have to hand it to Mangold for making singers out of the cast he assembled for the Bob Dylan biopic.
Best Actress:
Who Will Win - Demi Moore, The Substance
Who Should Win - Mikey Madison, Anora
The prosthetics and make-up, plus being such a sentimental choice, tip the scales for Demi; but for raw acting in her first lead role, I’ll pick Mikey, which the BAFTA and Spirit Awards recognized.
Best Actor:
Who Will Win - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Who Should Win - Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Never easy to slip into a character when that person is still around. And add to that having to sing and play guitar in the film, when you’re not known for doing either.
Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Win - Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez
Who Should Win - Zoe Saldaña
Zoe knocks it out of the ballpark with this one.
Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Win - Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Who Should Win - Kieran Culkin
While Jesse Eisenberg directing and acting in A Real Pain is impressive, Culkin outshines him in the film, and has deserved every Win this season.
Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win - Conclave
Who Should Win - The Nickel Boys
Watch Nickel Boys and be astounded by the transition from Colson Whitehead's novel to RaMell Ross's screenplay. But I will be happy if Conclave wins.
Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win - The Brutalist
Who Should Win - Anora
Brady Corbet, thank you for the research and depth of this co-written screenplay.
Film Editing:
Who Will Win - The Brutalist
Who Should Win - Conclave
Cinematography:
Who Will Win - Nosferatu
Who Should Win - The Brutalist… or The Nickel Boys, but Boys wasn’t even nominated.
Production Design:
Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1
Who Should Win - Nosferatu or Conclave
Costume Design:
Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1
Who Should Win - still Wicked!
Original Score:
Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1
Who Should Win - The Wild Robot
Original Song:
Who Will Win - The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
Who Should Win - The Journey!
Diane Warren composed the song, but it’s performed by H.E.R., who’s half-Filipina! So yes, my ‘Wild Card’ prediction, and I'm crossing my fingers on this one so that H.E.R. can add to her Oscar collection.
Sound:
Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1
Who Should Win - A Complete Unknown
Make-up and Hair-styling:
Who Will Win - The Substance
Who Should Win - The Substance
Visual Effects:
Who Will Win - Dune Part Two
Who Should Win - Alien: Romulus
Animated Feature:
Who Will Win - The Wild Robot
Who Should Win - Flow
It’s Hollywood, so forget about the Golden Globes Flow win - a different set of people voting.
International Feature Film:
Who Will Win - Emilia Perez (France)
Who Should Win - The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
This will be the one Award that Emilia Perez can still pick up after the severe fallout of its trans- lead star.
The last four categories - Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Animated Short, and Live Action Short, I have no basis for stating a choice, as I’ve not had the chance to watch the nominees. So that’s 19 awards out of the 23 that I’ve predicted. See you on March 3; as I tally my score.