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Manila Bulletin devider Entertainment devider Celebrities devider Predicting Oscar 2025

Predicting Oscar 2025

Then, let's see, come March 2 (morning of March 3, Manila time), how many I got right!

Published Feb 23, 2025 02:54 pm
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It’s that time of the year when I do a little crystal ball-gazing, and offer up my predictions on the upcoming Academy Awards. As is my custom, I go through most of the Oscars that are up for grabs on the night and distinguish between Who Will Win and my personal take on Who Should Win. Then, let’s see come March 2 (morning of March 3, Manila time), how many I got right!

Best Picture: 

Who Will Win - Anora

Who Should Win - Conclave

I actually loved both these films, but think Conclave is the one that years from now, will age better, like good wine. 

Best Director:

Who Will Win - Sean Baker, Anora

Who Should Win - James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

I’ll be happy to watch Baker accept the statue, but have to hand it to Mangold for making singers out of the cast he assembled for the Bob Dylan biopic.

Best Actress:

Who Will Win - Demi Moore, The Substance

Who Should Win - Mikey Madison, Anora

The prosthetics and make-up, plus being such a sentimental choice, tip the scales for Demi; but for raw acting in her first lead role, I’ll pick Mikey, which the BAFTA and Spirit Awards recognized.

Best Actor:

Who Will Win - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Who Should Win - Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Never easy to slip into a character when that person is still around. And add to that having to sing and play guitar in the film, when you’re not known for doing either.

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Best Supporting Actress:

Who Will Win - Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez

Who Should Win - Zoe Saldaña 

Zoe knocks it out of the ballpark with this one. 

Best Supporting Actor:

Who Will Win - Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Who Should Win - Kieran Culkin

While Jesse Eisenberg directing and acting in A Real Pain is impressive, Culkin outshines him in the film, and has deserved every Win this season. 

Adapted Screenplay:

Who Will Win - Conclave

Who Should Win - The Nickel Boys

Watch Nickel Boys and be astounded by the transition from Colson Whitehead's novel to RaMell Ross's screenplay. But I will be happy if Conclave wins.

Original Screenplay:

Who Will Win - The Brutalist

Who Should Win - Anora

Brady Corbet, thank you for the research and depth of this co-written screenplay. 

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Film Editing:

Who Will Win - The Brutalist

Who Should Win - Conclave

Cinematography:

Who Will Win - Nosferatu

Who Should Win - The Brutalist… or The Nickel Boys, but Boys wasn’t even nominated.

Production Design:

Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1

Who Should Win - Nosferatu or Conclave

Costume Design:

Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1

Who Should Win - still Wicked!

Original Score:

Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1

Who Should Win - The Wild Robot

Original Song:

Who Will Win - The Journey from The Six Triple Eight

Who Should Win - The Journey!

Diane Warren composed the song, but it’s performed by H.E.R., who’s half-Filipina! So yes, my ‘Wild Card’ prediction, and I'm crossing my fingers on this one so that H.E.R. can add to her Oscar collection. 

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Diane Warren (left) and H.E.R. (who’s proud to say she’s half-Filipina)

Sound:

Who Will Win - Wicked Part 1

Who Should Win - A Complete Unknown

Make-up and Hair-styling:

Who Will Win - The Substance

Who Should Win - The Substance

Visual Effects:

Who Will Win - Dune Part Two

Who Should Win - Alien: Romulus

Animated Feature:

Who Will Win - The Wild Robot

Who Should Win - Flow

It’s Hollywood, so forget about the Golden Globes Flow win - a different set of people voting. 

International Feature Film:

Who Will Win - Emilia Perez (France)

Who Should Win - The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

This will be the one Award that Emilia Perez can still pick up after the severe fallout of its trans- lead star. 

The last four categories - Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Animated Short, and Live Action Short, I have no basis for stating a choice, as I’ve not had the chance to watch the nominees. So that’s 19 awards out of the 23 that I’ve predicted. See you on March 3; as I tally my score. 

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