In November 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, forever altering the technological landscape. Within two months, it garnered 100 million monthly active users, becoming the fastest-growing consumer application in history at that point. This cemented OpenAI's position as a leading force in artificial intelligence.

However, in early 2024, Google debuted Gemini Pro 1.5, boasting a groundbreaking one million-token context window—a measure of computing capability—capable of processing approximately 750,000 words, roughly the length of the Bible. This surpassed ChatGPT 4's 8,192-token context window, briefly giving Google the appearance of AI dominance.

Then, in May 2024, OpenAI responded with ChatGPT-4o, their fastest and most advanced model yet. Around July, both companies released more efficient versions: Google's Gemini 1.5 Flash and OpenAI's ChatGPT-4o Mini. Throughout 2024, the rivals continued releasing improved, faster, and more robust AI models, incorporating revolutionary features like image generation, PDF processing, and live camera analysis.

While companies like Meta and Anthropic also developed models, the competition largely focused on OpenAI vs. Google—with OpenAI holding a considerable lead in user base. Almost monthly, these two companies released updates, pushing the boundaries of consumer-grade language AI models.

Then, in January 2025, an unexpected event occurred. Deepseek, a small, relatively unknown Chinese company, launched R1—an AI model so efficient that, according to VentureBeat's tests, it performed up to four times faster than OpenAI’s latest o1 model while using half the computational power. Within a month, Deepseek became one of the most downloaded apps on both the Google and Apple app stores, disrupting the "OpenAI vs. Google" narrative.

And surprises continued. Less than a month after Deepseek's arrival, new models came out of the woods. On Jan. 23, OpenAI introduced Operator—an AI agent capable of directly controlling web browsers. On Jan. 30, Alibaba unveiled a model claiming to outperform Deepseek. And just last week, on Feb. 5, Google announced Gemini 2.0, their most powerful model family to date.

The ultimate winner of the AI race remains to be seen. However, this series of events offers a valuable lesson for investors: in business, there are no guaranteed winners. OpenAI's initial dominance with ChatGPT was challenged by Google's more robust model. When the race seemed to be between two companies, Deepseek emerged. And as Deepseek gained traction, even more players entered the field.

In business, leadership is constantly changing. Horses gave way to gas-powered cars, which are now being challenged by electric vehicles. Nokia dominated the cellphone market until BlackBerry's rise, followed by Apple's iPhone. Intel was once a powerhouse until AMD gained a foothold in the processor market, forcing Intel to innovate further.

The reality is that no matter how strong a company appears today, competitors are constantly working behind the scenes to disrupt the status quo.

For investors, this means two things: First, avoid assuming that today's leader will remain on top. Even seemingly invincible companies can be dethroned. Second, keep an eye on the underdogs. The next big winner might be a startup flying under the radar, like Deepseek.

In business, the race never ends. When evaluating investments, remember: there are no sure bets. Just as OpenAI's apparent AI leadership was challenged, the same can happen to any dominant company in any industry. The only certainty is uncertainty, which makes business both risky and exciting.

Keith Lim is a personal finance writer and stock market investor. His insights can be found at keithblim.com.