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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Stock Market devider PSEi braces for low liquidity in shortened trading week

PSEi braces for low liquidity in shortened trading week

Published Dec 29, 2025 12:00 am  |  Updated Dec 27, 2025 04:32 pm
Philippine equities are expected to trade in a narrow range during a holiday-shortened week, with investors weighing the impact of delayed national budget against the prospect of long-term recovery in 2026.
Trading volume will likely remain subdued with only two active sessions on the calendar—the final trading day of 2025 and the inaugural session of 2026—as market participants remain on year-end vacations.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) is coming off a period of heightened volatility, attempting to solidify its position above the 6,000 psychological support level.
“The PSEi is likely to close the year on a whimper, despite technicals and valuations pointing to a gradual rebound in the first half of 2026,” brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a research note.
While cooling inflation and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas support a bullish base-case scenario, near-term fiscal hurdles are creating friction.
Analysts at 2TradeAsia.com warned that the delayed signing of the 2026 national budget, now slated for early January, poses a risk of a brief "reenacted" budget regime. Such a scenario could stall infrastructure disbursements and trigger liquidity constraints in the first quarter.
“This is a component of output that is desperately needed to reaffirm the growth trajectory,” the brokerage added.
Despite these immediate concerns, the long-term outlook for Philippine risk assets remains supported by a low-rate environment and resilient domestic consumption.
Investors are being advised to monitor year-end window dressing for potential price uplifts, though momentum will ultimately depend on budget resolution and global commodity price movements.
Technical indicators suggest some underlying strength. The market has seen a buildup in positive momentum since bottoming at 5,584.35 on Nov. 14, according to Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial. The index is currently trading above its 10-day and 50-day exponential moving averages.
"If the market successfully establishes its ground at 6,000, it may target next its resistance at 6,150," Tantiangco said. However, he noted that the broader trend remains down when measured from the market's peak on Oct. 7, 2024.
Amid the cautious atmosphere, COL Financial has shifted its stance on several blue-chip and consumer names.
The brokerage upgraded its recommendation to buy from hold for Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures, SSI Group, ACEN Corp., and Aboitiz Equity Ventures. It also reinstated buy ratings on First Gen Corp. and First Philippine Holdings Corp. following the completion of First Gen’s stake reduction in its gas platform.

Related Tags

Philippine Stock Exchange index Philstocks Financial Japhet Tantiangco 2TradeAsia.com COL Financial
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